Youth and Peaceful Elections in Kenya

Chapter Five: Economic Implications of Peaceful and Fair General Elections in Kenya

Chapter Five Economic Implications of Peaceful and Fair General Elections in Kenya X.N. Iraki Introduction Peace has been man’s greatest objective throughout history; unfortunately history is more about war and lack of peace with most of human history written in blood. 58,000 Americans were killed in Vietnam War while the battle of Somme in France killed 58, 000 in one day in 1916 during World War I. History’s greatest events are defined by lack of peace; 1066 AD, Alexander the Great, Napoleon, Mau Mau and more recently, the Balkan Wars and the instability in DR Congo and other parts of the world. Countries experiencing lots peace such as Switzerland and Costa Rica are rarely in the news. It could be argued cautiously that war often leads to peace; Germany and USA are great trading partners but fought each other during the WWII, less than a century ago. This cannot be an argument for instability. As we approach general elections, everyone is concerned about peace, because our history has shown we have the propensity to be unstable, from post election violence (PEV) of 2008 when more than 1300 died. Most wars are economic in nature, fought over scarce resources from water to pastures. That is why land has been the epicenter of most wars; it was historically the most important economic resource, and it still is in most countries. Through fighting, some people get access to resources they could not, peacefully. For the modern economies, the resources fought over might not be that tangible, they could include jobs and even access to prestige and power. Behind any political violence or instability is the invisible hand of economics. This is Economic Implications of Peaceful and Fair Elections in Kenya 81 82 Youth and Peaceful Elections in Kenya despite a study done by government of Kenya/UNDP (2011) that showed only 16 per cent those interviewed saw economics s a source of conflict. The effects of political instability and violence to the Kenyan economy are reflected by economic growth dips as the figure 1 below shows. Figure 1 Source of Data: World Bank 2012. The circles shows periods of instability and the subsequent fall in economic growth. The infamous land clashes are clearly shown by the dips in 1992, 1997 and 2008. A map of Kenya’s political hot spots during the 2008 post election violence seems to support that economic cause of violence. Land has become scarce because of fast population growth- economics again. In all the skirmishes, its entrepreneurs who suffered most- economics again. Even envy which drove some clashes has economic origins.  Kenya GDP growth rate since 1970 -10.00 -5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 11/6/2012 Economics and Peace Figure 2 Sources: Data exchange program of the UNEP, 2008. Economic Implications of Peaceful and Fair Elections in Kenya 83 84 Youth and Peaceful Elections in Kenya The economic cost of PEV is estimated to have costed the economy billions in lost revenues as businesses closed and economically able who were killed or disabled. Other regions nearer home that have experienced instability include Sierra Leone, DR Congo, Uganda-After Idi Amin, Sudan, Rwanda, Nigeria and Somali. Most would have avoided chaos if they had a working democracy. Farther, resources used in civil strives could have been channeled else let alone the long term effects of instability -often not considered; imagine rearing a kid from rape in a war or civil strife or hatred passed to next generationBalkan war grudges stretch as far back as 1689 ! The road to peaceful elections and aftermath may be paved in economics. It is unfortunately that as we prepare for 2013 general elections, not much focus is going to economic issues. Economic road to peace During the PEV in Kenya, there was no violence in Runda, Karen, Muthaiga and other affluent suburbs, a clear indicator that political violence has economic origins. The PEV brought into fore another fact; growing inequality. No one would have expected PEV when Kenyans economy was enjoying a robust growth. This growth seems not to have been accompanied by growth in equity leaving many people feeling alienated and shunted to the economic periphery espoused by increasing number of small and microenterprises(SMEs). A hawker...