Conjunctures and Continuities in Southeast Asian Politics

1. Conjunctures and Continuities in Southeast Asian Politics

1 CONJUNCTURES AND CONTINUITIES IN SOUTHEAST ASIAN POLITICS N. Ganesan In their evolution of political structures and life, countries often undergo significant conjunctures or what is sometimes referred to as historical junctures. For parsimony, the term conjuncture which appears to better reflect a confluence of forces has been chosen. A conjuncture involves “interaction effects between distinct causal sequences that become joined at particular points in time”.1 During such moments “relatively long periods of institutional stability and reproduction are punctuated occasionally by brief periods of institutional flux”.2 At the formative level, such conjunctures are likely to be important starting points in the historical evolution of a society or country. Just like ethnic nations, these formative episodes are likely to involve an important event, declaration or document. The American Civil War in the 1800s and the Magna Carta in the United Kingdom constitute such episodes. Subsequently, and deriving their legitimacy from these formative events, structures, rituals and practices that acquire symbolic and mythical value evolve over time. Whereas such practices naturally undergo changes over time to reflect both the popular  N. Ganesan will as well as administrative refinements, there is a certain permanence about these foundational norms. For example, in the United Kingdom, as democracy evolved, power gradually shifted from the upper House of Lords to the lower House of Commons. Notwithstanding the changes in the configuration of power between both Houses, it can be argued that the structures have remained intact. In fact, the transfer of power from the Lords to the Commons quite simply reflected the democratic value that state sovereignty should be vested with the citizenry rather than the elite aristocracy. Foundational conjunctures are likely to determine structural and cultural norms that order political life. Such events typically identify the rules of engagement and provide both opportunities and constraints to regulate politics. Changes then occur incrementally while the basic principles or rules of engagement become reified. However, from time to time states and societies undergo major events that reorder political structures and norms. These events mark a major point of departure from the past and introduce new structures and norms that subsequently become ensconced. In the literature in comparative politics the study of conjunctures falls within the historical institutionalist approach. The approach places great emphasis on the importance of time and the availability of options at the time of the conjuncture. It is also concerned with the concept of “increasing returns”, a term borrowed from economics to describe how a specific decision ordains path dependency and perpetuates it over time. It is this dependency that in turn precludes other possible trajectories over time. Conjunctures are moments in time that offer the possibility of evolving path-dependent decisions. This chapter provides the background to a number of important conjunctures that have occurred in Southeast Asia in the last two decades. In line with the technical definition of a conjuncture, it is likely concerned with developments that have served to dislodge previous structures and practices and replace them with new ones that have in turn acquired their own legitimacy and volition over time. It will also identify the nature of the break with the immediate past and the new structures and norms that obtain. Admittedly the older these conjunctures are the easier it is to identify the changes. Where such conjunctures are of recent vintage the best that can be hoped for is an intelligent guess on the likely trajectory of future developments as path dependency locks in future developments. In this regard it should be noted from the outset that conjunctures require some time for new norms and practices to crystallize. Conjunctures and Continuities in Southeast Asian Politics  CONJUNCTURES AND RELATED CONCEPTS Conjunctures are those that can be best described as major watersheds in political life. Such conjunctures establish “certain directions of change and foreclose others in a way that shapes politics for years to come”.3 Traditionally, such studies emphasized either “deeply embedded antecedent conditions” or “societal conditions or crises” that lead to such junctures. This notion of critical junctures is extremely important in historical institutional analysis and “characterized by a situation in which the structural (that is economic, cultural, ideological, organizational) influences on political action are significantly relaxed for a relatively short period with two main consequences: the range of plausible choices open to powerful political actors expands substantially and the consequences of their decisions for the outcome of interest are potentially much more...