Ageing in Southeast and East Asia: Family, Social Protection, Policy Challenges

4. Singapore's Response to an Ageing Population

66 66 Yap Mui Teng 4 SINGAPORE’S RESPONSE TO AN AGEING POPULATION1 Yap Mui Teng INTRODUCTION: SINGAPORE’S AGED POPULATION IN COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE Of the ten ASEAN countries, Singapore has the highest proportion of the population that is elderly or aged2 (defined as those aged 60 years and older) although Indonesia has the largest number by far (Figure 4.1). According to the United Nations, Singapore’s elderly made up nearly 11 per cent of the population in 2002, compared with about 8 per cent for the next “oldest” countries — Indonesia and Thailand — and only 4 per cent for Cambodia, the “youngest” of the 10 countries (UN Population Ageing 2002 wallchart). In numerical terms, however, Singapore has among the smallest number of the old, at about 460,000, compared with over 17 million in Indonesia. Concern over the ageing of the population, however, is not only about the growing number and proportion of the old. It is also about the changing age structure of the population as encapsulated in the “dependency ratio”. The latter is the ratio of persons in the “dependent” age groups, typically below age 15 (the “young dependents”) and age 60 or 65 and older (the “old dependents”), relative to the remaining “working age” population 15–59 or 64 years. While there is not necessarily a one-to-one correspondence between age and dependency at the individual level (a criticism often levelled at the usefulness of the dependency ratio), the concept remains a simple and easy to use measure of age structure changes which have tremendous potential 66 04 Ageing_East Asia_Ch 4 1/10/08, 10:28 AM 66 67 Singapore’s Response to an Ageing Population 67 consequences for the population. The rising old dependency ratio, the ratio of the old to working age population, experienced or to be experienced by many countries is generally acknowledged to impact its health care and social security systems, and even its future economic prosperity and political development, besides entailing the need for, and availability of, support (see, for example, Nizamuddin 1999; Schulz, in the same volume, however cautions against turning demographic ratios into social predictions [p. 135]). As Figure 4.2 shows, Singapore currently has the lowest proportion of the young and highest proportion of the old compared with the other ASEAN countries. This difference is due to differences in the timing of fertility declines among the various countries. Singapore’s demographic transition began earlier, with sharp fertility declines in the late 1960s and early 1970s, compared with the other ASEAN countries. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) fell from more than four children per woman in 1965 to replacement level just 10 years later, and has remained below replacement since. Figure 4.3 shows the projected age composition of populations in the ASEAN countries in 2050, based on projections made by the United Nations (United Nations 2002). According to this projection, the proportion aged 60 and above in Singapore will likely rise to 35 per cent, or about one in three persons. In comparison, the other ASEAN countries, except Cambodia and Laos, would have about 20–25 per cent in this age group. More importantly FIGURE 4.1 Population Aged 60 and Older, 2002 2 ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 Br n u i e a i d o b m a C a i s e n o d n I a L s o a i s y a l a M M a y r a m n P i h li s e n i p p Si a g n o p re T i a h l n a d Vi t e n m a ) s d n a s u o h t n i ( r e b m u N 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 n o i t a l u p o p f o t n e c r e P Number Per cent Source: World Population Ageing: 1950–2050, United Nations. 04 Ageing_East Asia_Ch 4 1/10/08, 10:29 AM 67 68 68 Yap Mui Teng FIGURE 4.2 Age Composition of Population, 2000 9 . 1 3 9 . 3 4 8 . 0 3 7 . 2 4 1 . 4 3 1 . 3 3 5 . 7 3 9 . 1 2 7 . 6 2 4 . 3 3 0 . 3...