In lieu of an abstract, here is a brief excerpt of the content:

688 Document No. 121: National Intelligence Estimate 12–90, “The Future of Eastern Europe,” (Key Judgments Only) April 1990 The CIA finally catches up with the march of history in this assessment, five months after the fall of the Berlin Wall. “Communist party rule in Eastern Europe is finished , and it will not be revived.” The Soviets have no more leverage in Eastern Europe , and even an aggressive Kremlin leadership will not be able to alter the course of events. “Moscow will seek to replace its lost domination of Eastern Europe with the advantages of a broader engagement with Europe as a whole.” Interestingly, the analysis endorses some of Gorbachev’s own notions of the mutual dissolution of the blocs and transfer of functions to an institutionalized Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE): “East European events will continue to take place against a backdrop of declining relevance for the Warsaw Pact and NATO. … Most East European states will aspire to build links to Western Europe and will hope that the CSCE process can provide a basis for such broader security arrangements .” The document’s final statement provides a hopeful conclusion for the events of 1989—hopeful but premature, given events in the decade or two since this analysis was written, such as the heated debates in Russia over the expansion of NATO, and the controversies over Eastern European countries hosting American military facilities. “In the region where both world wars and the Cold War began, a democratic , prosperous, and independent Eastern Europe would be an element of stability rather than an object of great power rivalry in the borderlands between East and West.” NATIONAL INTELLIgENCE ESTIMATE: THE FUTURE OF EASTERN EUROPE This estimate represents the views of the Director of Central Intelligence with the advice and assistance of the US Intelligence Community. • The revolutions in Eastern Europe provide the basis for developing democracy and market economies. But this will not be a linear process, and a number of countries will continue to face political instability, ethnic turmoil , and economic backwardness. • Even with Western help, East European economies—excluding that of East germany—are likely to make only modest progress during the next five years. • The possibility remains of a relapse to authoritarianism, particularly in the Balkans, where the lifting of Communist hegemony threatens to revive old ethnic animosities, civil strife, and interstate tensions. The environmental nightmare will also persist. Melyakova book.indb 688 2010.04.12. 16:21 689 • West Europeans are better positioned to lead in shaping the East European future, but the United States has important advantages, among them the desire of East Europeans for a counterweight to Soviet and german influence. Key Judgments Communist party rule in Eastern Europe is finished, and it will not be revived. This and the lifting of Soviet hegemony create new opportunities for establishing representative democracies and self-sustaining market economies. The way will also open for new modes of regional political and economic cooperation. The greatest impetus is the resolve of East Europeans and their leaders to achieve reforms by emulating Western economic and political models. The evolution of the region will make the designation “Eastern Europe” increasingly imprecise, as East-Central European countries—Poland, Czechoslovakia , Hungary, and East germany—move ahead in closer association with the West, and the Balkans—Bulgaria, Romania, and Albania—settle into a more separate role. Yugoslavia, if it holds together, will continue close ties to the West.91 In some East European countries, however, we will see political instability and perhaps even a revival of authoritarianism, amidst lingering economic backwardness and reemerging ethnic animosities. Despite Western aid and investment , the East European economies—excluding that of East germany—are likely to make only uneven progress during the five-year timespan of this Estimate. Ultimately, prospects for healthy democracy will be closely tied to the way in which East Europeans resolve their systemic economic crisis: • Western aid will be essential, especially in the early stages, to make up the “capital deficit” required to cushion any transition to market economies. • Such aid will have to be linked to private investment, access to Western markets, and long-term programs designed to develop the skills and institutions necessary for a modern economy, as well as to full mobilization of indigenous resources for investment. The outlook is more promising for the countries in East-Central Europe—particularly East germany, which will rapidly merge into West germany’s economy . Elsewhere, several countries have good potential as sites for Western...

Share