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Document No. 40: CIAAlert Memorandum, “Poland” April 3, 1981 For the second week in a row, the CIA warns that a Soviet invasion may come within a matter of days. Without providing evidence, the authors of this Alert Memorandum state bluntly: “We believe that the Soviet leaders have been convinced by the evident impotence of the Polish party and government that military intervention is necessary .” They point to a number of preparations that Moscow has made—although those details have been blacked out in the document—and conclude that an invasion would now be feasible, but the basis for asserting that the Kremlin had decided that an invasion is “necessary” is not spelled out. Alert Memorandum Poland We believe that the Soviet leaders have been convinced by the evident impotence of the Polish party and government that military intervention is necessary. They have set preparations in motion and would have the capability to move in considerable force within 48 hours. We believe it likely, however, that they would want to have stronger forces than they could move that quickly and that it would take about another seven days to have the 30 or so divisions needed if the Poles were to resist. We do not know whether they have reached a final decision to act, but this decision could come at any time and the decision could be to take the Poles by surprise. If this should be the case, there could be a move this weekend. The situation in Poland remains highly volatile and marked by great unpredictability . While there has been at least a temporary reduction in tension following cancellation of the general strike scheduled for last Tuesday, pressures from militants within Solidarity for additional negotiations and for further government concessions are strong. The conciliatory posture of the Kania–Jaruzelski regime could be viewed—and probably is by hardline elements in Warsaw and Moscow —as manifesting a lack of political will to halt the disintegration of communist rule in Poland. The Soviets have taken a number of preparatory steps for possible intervention in Poland. [One line excised] [Half page excised] Information acquired through April 2 indicates that the Soviets now are capable of intervention with a force of 12 to 20 divisions with little further warning . Whether the Soviets believe such a force is adequate is known only to them. Should Moscow decide on a larger force of 30 divisions or more, an additional preparation period would be required. [Half line excised] [Source: FOIA release from the CIA, on file at the National Security Archive, “Soviet Flashpoints” collection.] 245 ...

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