Strategic Asia 2007-08: Domestic Political Change and Grand Strategy

Bangladesh and Pakistan:From Secession to Convergence?

executive summary This chapter analyzes the evolution of Bangladeshi and Pakistani domestic politics and the potential impact on their respective security, the security of India, and U.S. regional policy. main argument: Both Bangladesh and Pakistan are experiencing a weakening of their political parties, a growing assertiveness of their respective armies, an erosion of democracy, and a strengthening of Islamist organizations. Islamist organizations still depend on the army’s goodwill in Pakistan but have emerged as kingmakers in Bangladesh, fulfilling the social role the state left empty. Both countries are at risk of becoming hubs of international terrorism as a result of increased political violence and Islamist militancy. Regionally, rapprochement between these two countries would be detrimental to India and beneficial to China, since Beijing could neutralize New Delhi through a series of bilateral alliances with countries on India’s periphery. policy implications: • If complacency or complicity of the Bangladeshi and Pakistani elites continues, both countries risk allowing a tiny minority—those identifying political Islam as their primary political identity—to ultimately determine both the bilateral relationship and the stability of the region. • Even a low level of hostility between India and Bangladesh arising from Islamic activism on the border would likely strengthen relations between Dhaka and Beijing. China would benefit from an even more complete series of alliances in India’s immediate neighborhood, de facto neutralizing New Delhi. • Long-term U.S. interests would be better served by a genuine democratization process in both Pakistan and Bangladesh. Unless current U.S. policy toward Pakistan changes, Islamabad’s increasing leverage will make it more difficult for the U.S. to apply pressures with regard to specific issues such as terrorism. South Asia Bangladesh and Pakistan: From Secession to Convergence? Frédéric Grare Bangladesh and Pakistan are in turmoil. Although for different reasons, both countries are experiencing a weakening of their political parties, a growing assertiveness of their armies, and an erosion of democracy. As a result, Islamist organizations are growing more powerful in both countries. Islamist organizations still depend on the army’s goodwill in Pakistan. In Bangladesh, however, Islamist organizations have emerged as kingmakers, fulfilling the social role the state left empty. Political violence has increased and Islamist militancy is on the rise in both countries. Partly as a reaction, phenomena such as ethnic nationalism have reappeared in Pakistan. As a result, Bangladesh and Pakistan could become hubs of international terrorism. In Bangladesh, corrupt and inefficient political practices have created a political vacuum that has been filled by Islamist parties that have used the polarization of the system to impose themselves as kingmakers. In Pakistan, the army has manipulated Islamist parties as a means to pressure the more mainstream political parties. This manipulation is also designed to influence Pakistan’s foreign policy, both at the regional level (particularly toward Afghanistan and Kashmir) and at the global level (particularly using cooperation on the war on terrorism to leverage relations with the United States and Europe). Moreover, the risk remains that the Pakistani army may partially lose control of some of the extremist organizations it still supports. Finally joint activism of Bangladeshi and Pakistani Islamist organizations on the Bangladesh-India border could make them the vector of a new rapprochement between Dhaka and Islamabad. Frédéric Grare is a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He can be reached at . 212 • Strategic Asia 2007–08 This chapter analyzes how changes in Bangladesh’s and Pakistan’s domestic politics have influenced their respective foreign policies. The chapter is divided into three sections. The first section analyzes Pakistan’s and Bangladesh’s grand strategies, describes their respective relations with India, and examines the consequences for each country’s domestic politics. The second section examines the self-destructive tendencies apparent through the evolution of both countries’ political systems and the role of their armies; a main focus of this section is on the use of Islamist organizations by other political forces and the resulting consequences for the nature of political violence. Finally, the third section assesses the impacts of these evolutions on the national and regional security of the main South Asian actors, including India, and resulting implications for U.S. policy. Bangladesh’s and Pakistan’s Grand Strategies and Drivers of Political Change Bangladesh’s and Pakistan’s grand strategies have several common characteristics but also major differences. For both countries, India is the key focal...