Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: Navigating an Uncertain Future

Index

267 Index adaptation, 2–3, 66, 129, 146, 249, 256 adaptive capacity, 7–8, 145, 159–60, 163, 173–74, 222 adaptive management, 57, 143, 222 agricultural impacts, 30–31, 135–50, 159–74 agricultural yield, 191, 171–72, 193 aquatic ecosystems, 222–23; habitats, 39, 46, 51–53, 56, 58, 87; species, 46, 66, 70–71, 73. See also fish assessments, climate, 231–32, 234, 255. See also Great Lakes Regional Assessment and U.S. National Assessment behavior, human, 105, 160 best management practices, 84 biofuels, 73, 134–35, 160 bioterrorism, 137 birds, 68, 70, 73, 75, 78–80, 89, 191; migration, 79–80 cascading impacts, 35, 46, 51, 80, 214 choice theory, 106, 114, 116 climate smart, 85, 87, 89 CO2 effects, 31, 67, 85, 89, 134, 139– 40; climate-sensitive optimization, 190; multiattribute utility theory, 115; phenology, 76 coastal areas, 41, 84 contamination, 51. See also pollution cost effectiveness. See economic impacts and factors costs. See economic impacts and factors CSS (combined sewer systems) and CSO (Combined Sewer Overflow), 119, 217– 20, 226–27, 229 decision support, 57, 120, 183, 202–3, 213–14, 221–26, 234 decisionmakers. See stakeholders decisionmaking, 7, 99–123, 151, 179–205, 213–26; integration with science, 179– 205, 221; process, 181–86, 203, 213, 223, 256; tools, 222–23; tradeoffs in, 115–17, 152, 191 decisions, 89, 213–27, 239–40, 249–57; adaptation, 129–53, 159–74; evaluation , 190, 196; goal-oriented versus evaluative, 7, 194; iterative, 183, 201, 206, 256; one-time versus non-final, 7, 194, 196; optimization, 189–90, 196; protection of ecosystem and species 83–84, 87; short-term versus long-term, 7, 52, 115, 192–94, 196; time horizon of, 121, 186, 188, 192–94, 196, 199; uncertainty, 99–123, 179–205 discounting, 112–14, 118, 120–21 downscaling, 8, 10, 43, 121–22, 201, 214, 232, 236–40, 245–46 drought, 82, 119, 222, 252–53, biodiversity , 69, 73–74, 164–74; extreme event, 84, 108, 137, 148 DUST (Decision Uncertainty Screening Tool), 7–8, 179–205 ecological impacts, 35, 51, 54 economic impacts and factors, 116–19, 135, 138, 184–85, 188; risks, 122, 161, 165, 168–69 ecosystem shift. See species change energy, 35–58, 63–89, 134, 137–38, 233, 251. See also biofuels environmental zones, 39 268| Index feedback loops, 65 fish, 4, 78, 184–85; cold-water, 65, 68, 70; Great Lakes, 38–39, 48–49, 51–52; 56, 85; 251–52; Lake St. Clair, 46, 49–50 food security, 6, 119, 130, 134, 159 framing, 111, 117, 122, 203 GCM (general circulation model/global climate model), 67, 76, 83, 134, 149, 187, 214–16, 219–220, 232, 236–40, 245–46 geography, 3, 73, 104, 235, 252 geology, 35–38 GIS (Geographic Information System), 105 GLISA (Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments Center), 11, 257 Great Lakes Regional Assessment, 225, 234 groundwater, 36, 40–41, 73, 129 heuristics, 6, 99, 106, 117, 254 hydrology, 35–36, 38, 40–41, 65, 220 ice cover, 22, 24, 28, 40, 65, 82–83 impact assessment, 131–32, 150, 159–74 incentives. See economic impacts and factors insects, 5, 68, 70, 79–81, 137, 165 integrated assessment, 139–40, 202. See also assessments, climate IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 64, 104, 134, 138, 153, 239, 245 irrigation, 31, 119–20, 129, 138, 142, 169, 191, 193 Kyoto Treaty, 116 lake effect, 4, 18–20, 26, 28–29, 32 Lake Erie, 42–43, 48–49, 58, 66, 79, 85, 162; “dead zone,” 49, 66 Lake Huron, 42–43, 64, 71 lake levels, 40–58, 83, 85, 105, 184–85, 191, 193, 251 Lake Michigan, 43, 64, 71, 88, 119 Lake St. Clair, 42–49, 54, 105 Lake Superior, 64, 66, 193 livestock, 119, 133, 139–42, 160, 167, 169–70 localization, 122. See also downscaling mammals, 69, 71–73 master variables, 35–37, 40–41; natural variables, 36 mitigation, 4, 100, 117, 120, 130, 132, 179–80, 187, 250 modeling, 72, 83, 183, 197, 202, 235, 239; agricultural adaptation, 129–53; climate, 6, 40–42, 204, 214–15, 223; normative versus descriptive, 103–6. See also impact assessment National Hurricane Center, 102 overconfidence, 106–7 paleoclimatological evidence, 20 path dependence, 130, 144–46 pesticides, 133, 137, 139 pests, 63, 74, 137, 139–40, 165–66, 172– 73. See also insects phenology, 5, 68, 75–80, 82, 84–87 Pileus Project, 8, 10, 105, 121, 231–47 policy, 100, 115, 120, 129–33...