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253 ≋ The consensus in the scientific community is that human activity is affecting global climate (IPCC 2007), and climate change will significantly alter many of the world’s coastal and wetland ecosystems (Titus et al. 1991; Wilkinson and Buddemeier 1994; Tarasona et al. 2001; Poff et al. 2002). Thus, the general climate patterns described in the previous paragraph are predicted to change significantly in the Gulf of Mexico (Twilley et al. 2001; Poff et al. 2002; Ning et al. 2003). Global climate change will interact with, and magnify, other human stresses on Gulf Coast ecosystems and the goods and services they provide (see Day et al. 2008). Recently, Twilley et al. (2001) pointed out 3 key questions for helping the public and policymakers understand the most likely ecological consequences of climate change in the region over the next 50 to 100 years and what must be done to prepare to safeguard the economy, culture, and natural heritage of the Gulf Coast: 1. What is the likely climate future for the Gulf Coast region? 2. What might these changes mean for Gulf Coast ecosystems and the goods and services they provide ? 3. How can residents of the Gulf Coast region address the challenge of a shifting climate? Global climate change will have a number of likely impacts in the Gulf of Mexico, including increases in temperature , accelerated sea-level rise, changes in rainfall and freshwater discharge, and changes in the frequency and Global climate change is important in considerations of integrated coastal management in the Gulf of Mexico. This is true for a number of reasons. Climate in the Gulf spans the range from tropical to the lower part of the temperate zone. Thus, as climate warms, the tropical– temperate interface, which is currently mostly offshore in the Gulf of Mexico, will increasingly move over the coastal zone of the northern and eastern parts of the Gulf. Currently, this interface is located in South Florida and around the US–Mexico border in the Texas–Tamaulipas region (Figs. 14.1 and 14.2) (Yáñez-Arancibia and Day 2004). Within this general temperature gradient, rainfall is important (Day et al. 1989). The climate around the Gulf ranges from arid to super humid (Fig. 14.1). In parts of the southern Gulf, especially in the drainage basin of the Grijalva and Usumacinta rivers that discharge to Campeche Sound, rainfall is >3000 mm/yr. Rainfall averages between 1500 and 2000 mm/yr in the north-central Gulf from Pensacola, Florida, to the Louisiana deltaic plain, and in the southwestern Gulf in the state of Veracruz. In most of the Florida and Yucatan peninsulas and in the northwestern Gulf, rainfall is between 1000 and 1500 mm/yr. Arid areas with less than 1000 mm occur in the northwestern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near Progreso and in the western Gulf coast between Tampico, Tamaulipas, and Corpus Christi, Texas. At this broad geographic scale, temperature and rainfall are two of the principal determinants of coastal wetland distribution (Day et al. 1989; Yáñez-Arancibia and Day 2004). 14 Global Climate Change Impacts on Coastal Ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico Considerations for Integrated Coastal Management John W. Day, Alejandro Yáñez-Arancibia, James H. Cowan, Richard H. Day, Robert R. Twilley, and John R. Rybczyk 254 ~ Day, Yáñez-Arancibia, Cowan, Day, Twilley, and Rybczyk ity in the timing and quantity or precipitation likely will also change. These patterns will reflect both changes in local precipitation and freshwater runoff and changes in larger drainage basins. Changing tropical storm activity and accelerated sea-level rise will be critical variables affecting coastal ecosystems. Although the precise geography of these regional shifts is not completely known at present (due to limitations in climate forecasting), signifiintensity of tropical storms (Day and Templet 1989; Twilley et al. 2001; Poff et al. 2002; Scavia et al. 2002; Ning et al. 2003; Day et al. 2005; Yáñez-Arancibia and Day 2005; Hoyos et al. 2006; Day et al. 2008; Ortiz Pérez et al. in Chapter 15 in this volume). These changes likely will have tremendous human, economic, and ecological effects in the coming decades. Our objective in this chapter is to describe the general functioning of coastal ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico and the predictions of climate change, and to discuss how climate change likely will affect management of coastal ecosystems. We draw on a number of recent publications concerning the implications of climate change for coastal ecosystems in the...

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