Boomburbs: The Rise of America's Accidental Cities

Chapter 7: Boomburbs at Buildout

Boomburbs occupy an in-between niche in the suburban landscape— they are not typical inner-ring suburbs nor are they exurban. Most are the products of the post–World War II building boom, and they continued to grow horizontally through the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s. However, some now find themselves in competition with their exurbs, facing neighborhood disinvestment, demographic shifts, and limited growth options. These former bedroom communities now have big-city needs that they must balance with a suburban environment based on low-density, single-use subdivisions. The boomburb boom may not be sustained, and some are seeing a slowdown in population gains.1 Population growth rates rest on several factors, including the amount of buildable land available; the number, type, and size of the new housing units that will be built on this land; the ethnic background of people who migrate to the city; and the age, education, income, and life plans of both existing and new residents. Based on this mix, some boomburbs have decades more double-digit growth ahead. However, there are also boomburbs where these factors weigh against significant future population gains, and a few boomburbs have already stopped rapid growth. Yet given the boomburb trend toward low density, changes in the nation’s building patterns may also affect the dynamics of how these places can expand. If sprawl has hit the wall, as it has in several big regions around the country, then slower-growing boomburbs may see new life as more densely built urban areas.2 A key is how boomburbs plan for the 7 Boomburbs at Buildout 144 future. Some are rushing to fill their remaining space with new development that is even lower density than the old. Meanwhile, other boomburbs are beginning to explore being denser and more traditional cities. Most boomburbs are not only more populous than they were several decades ago, but because of annexations, they are also physically larger. Western boomburbs were especially eager to annex surrounding lands to access their water rights. Data on land area are available for the forty-three boomburbs that existed in 1960. Between 1960 and 1990, the average size of these cities increased from fifteen square miles to fifty square miles.3 Comparisons of population across time, however, can be tricky because the places annexed usually contained some population. For example, San Bernardino, California, annexed land in the 1950s and 1960s; the 1950s annexations added 12,803 people to the population by 1960, and the 1960s annexations added 6,092 people by 1970. But it is not known how many of these people were there to start with and how many moved into the annexed parts after the land was added to the city. Another fact complicating population comparisons is that some boomburbs were formed through combining existing towns or unincorporated places, which can result in a large initial population. For example, Chesapeake, Virginia, was created in 1963 as the result of a merger between the city of South Norfolk and Norfolk County.4 The new city had an estimated population of 78,000 in 1963 and an enumerated population of 89,580 at the time of its first decennial census in 1970. This chapter considers how boomburbs expect to build out. The methods used to determine their plans were phone interviews with planning departments, visits to over two dozen boomburbs, interviews with the mayors of these cities, and an analysis of planning documents posted to municipal websites. The result is a multifaceted portrait of how boomburbs expect to develop in the next several decades. For smart-growth advocates , boomburb buildout plans are both encouraging and sobering. Many boomburbs expect denser, mixed-use development to be built around light-rail stations. But it appears that the majority of new growth will feature typical subdivision and strip development—with perhaps only slightly higher densities than have been common in the past. Boomburb Buildout Plans Buildout refers to the point at which development either has reached a city’s borders or has exhausted large-scale greenfield options. Many cities survey the area that remains available for new growth and estimate the date at BOOMBURBS AT BUILDOUT 145 which current development trends will consume this space. Some boomburbs also calculate their final buildout population. Because of planned annexation, some cities may produce two scenarios—one with and another without the expected additional land. Several variables factor into buildout analysis. Perhaps the most...