Big Bets and Black Swans 2014: A Presidential Briefing Book

Reassert U.S. Leadershipof a Liberal Global Order

Memorandum 1 To: President Obama From: Robert Kagan and Ted Piccone Date: January 23, 2014 Subject: Reassert U.S. Leadership of a Liberal Global Order BIG BETS Summary and Recommendations In the year since Brookings published its first Big Bets and Black Swans report, the global situation has become more unstable and America’s role more uncertain. The concerns we expressed then about the fraying of the liberal order, and the need for strong and effective American leadership to reverse that trend, remain. At home, Americans grow more uninterested and disillusioned by foreign policy, as indicated by the November 2013 Pew poll. Cuts in defense, foreign aid and other spending related to foreign policy continue to mount, even as the American economy shows increased signs of vitality and even though foreign challenges are increasing. Although cautious optimism may be warranted in some areas—the possibility of a deal on Iran’s nuclear weapons program, for instance—by most indicators, the world has become a more difficult and dangerous place since you began your second term. Your overarching foreign policy goal for the remainder of your term should be to reassert American leadership in a rules-based international system in which norms are not only articulated but also, wherever possible, enforced. This will require doubling down on some big bets—rebalancing in Asia, rolling back nuclear weapons development in Iran and North Korea, winning trade and investment agreements in the Pacific and Atlantic zones, and investing in our national human and physical capital and global reach. You will also need to limit damage from the turmoil in the Arab world, shore up our key alliances with Germany, Japan and Korea, and manage any provocations from Russia and China. 2 robert kagan and ted piccone Background The plastic moment of a year ago to mold the global order is slipping away as crises become more complicated. In the Middle East, the situation in Syria has grown more dire, despite some progress toward controlling and eliminating the government’s chemical weapons program. Among the Syrian opposition, al Qaeda and other extremist factions have grown in strength and influence as more moderate groups continue to founder, partly as a result of inadequate outside support and direction. The steady flow of refugees across Syria’s borders increasingly threatens the well-being and stability of neighboring countries. The vast number of displaced persons within Syria may this winter turn into an even greater humanitarian disaster. The continuation of the proxy war, which some of your advisors favor, seems likely to create a nightmare scenario for the United States and our allies in the region: a significant al Qaeda presence, and a major cross-border humanitarian crisis, with the possibility of further destabilization in the region. In Iraq, meanwhile, sectarian and terrorist violence is on the upswing and state security forces are losing ground to al Qaeda. In Egypt, hopes for progress toward democracy have been dashed by the military coup and the subsequent disenfranchisement and persecution of supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood and also, increasingly, liberal and secular voices. The growth of violent radicalism in both Iraq and Egypt, together with the crisis in Syria, poses significant challenges to American interests in a more secure region. In Asia, doubts about American staying power persist, despite the announced “rebalancing.” Regional allies question whether continuing political gridlock in Washington, limits on defense spending and America’s evident continuing preoccupation with the Middle East have made the so-called pivot to East Asia more rhetoric than substance. China’s provocative new policy of seeking to control extended airspace, and ongoing tensions between our allies Japan and Korea, could pose an escalating threat to American credibility. Among the greatest challenges facing American foreign policy may be public attitudes at home. According to the most recent Pew poll, 52 percent of Americans believe that the United States should “mind its own business internationally and let other countries get along the best they can on their own.” That is the first time in the 50 years Pew has been asking this question that a majority of Americans have expressed this view. While some movement in this direction was probably predictable given the difficulties in Iraq and Afghanistan, the trend ought to be worrying to those who believe the United States must continue to play an active role in the world in order to protect its Reassert U.S. Leadership of...