Inside Out India and China: Local Politics Go Global

4. India: Forward States, Backward States, and Swing States

86 CHAPTER FOUR INDIA: FORWARD STATES, BACKWARD STATES, AND SWING STATES INDIA, LIKE CHINA, now has both spectacularly wealthy urban centers and also hundreds of millions who live in rural poverty. India’s coast, like China’s, now features states that are global trade and investment hubs. Its hinterlands, like China’s, struggle to generate sustained economic growth, to responsibly steward natural resources, and to develop effective and transparent governance. India’s economic successes are real. As markets opened, Indians and others began to invest in the country’s businesses. Some highpro file exports have captured global imaginations, particularly in technology and services. Trade has grown dramatically, jumping by nearly 20 percent each year for the past decade. Exports totaled almost $187 billion in 2010.1 Still, it is obvious to most visitors of both countries that India lags far behind China, both in economic output and infrastructure .2 After leaving India and traveling to China, my eight-year-old daughter quipped, “Daddy, this looks more like America.” Reform efforts in India started a decade after China’s. But where China chose GDP monotheism, India’s leaders wanted greater economic growth but did not want to ignore other gods of progress. Whether in New Delhi or in state capitals, most Indian leaders also INDIA: FORWARD STATES, BACKWARD STATES, AND SWING STATES 87 have remained committed to democratic governance as well as maintaining a multiethnic, multilingual, multireligious, and multicaste society.3 Just as India is renowned for its multiple religions—including a few polytheistic ones—it also worships at least three core political values: multiculturalism, democracy, and economic growth. The priority given to these values varies dramatically from state to state. Prosperity has lagged in India’s so-called backward states. Politics have been dominated by social tensions, and democracy has not led to economic growth. Growth-oriented policies often have taken a back seat to the divisive politics of poor versus rich, farm versus city, Hindu versus Muslim, one caste versus another. In what we might call the forward states, economic growth has become a higher priority, although these states also must manage social tensions arising from religion, caste, and language. As in China, history, geography, and poor governance have conspired to determine which states are forward, which are backward, and which are swinging in one direction or the other. The diversity of India’s economic performance is exemplified by India’s seven most important states, which I refer to here as India’s G-7. To a large degree, those states rule India. About 730 million people live there—just shy of the industrialized G-7’s current 746 million. At current population growth rates, India’s G-7 will likely have more people than the industrial G-7 in the next decade. These states make up over 50 percent of India’s GDP— about $800 billion. If India returns to 7 percent economic growth, they will help lead India past several developed G-7 nations. In selecting India’s seven most important states, I did not use a single indicator of whether a state was either the country’s most populous, most wealthy, or most productive. Rather, all three combined determine a state’s importance. Population is critical, since influence in the national parliament depends on how many parliamentary votes a party controls. As regional and state-based parties continue to grow, so also grows their power in parliament. INDIA: FORWARD STATES, BACKWARD STATES, AND SWING STATES 88 Yet some states are more important than their population alone would indicate. A few highly productive, fast-growing states are changing India.4 Based on my criteria, Table 4-1 lists India’s most important seven states—each of which I visited—and their current chief ministers. Each of the seven chief ministers listed is a major force in India. Open any newspaper or magazine on a given day in India—in any city—and you are likely to see at least three of them and TABLE 4-1. India’s G-7 Units as indicated State Chief minister Population (millions) Rural population (percent) GDP per capita (dollars) a GDP (billions of dollars) a Average GDP growth 2005–12 (percent) b Uttar Pradesh Akhilesh Yadav 200 78 627 128 7.01 Maharashtra Prithviraj Chavan 112 55 2,113 224 11.09c Bihar Nitish Kumar 104 89 489 46 11.32 West Bengal Mamata Banerjee 91 68...