Ethnonationalist Conflict in Postcommunist States: Varieties of Governance in Bulgaria, Macedonia, and Kosovo

Conclusions: Lessons Learned About Informally Institutionalized Conflict Dynamics

Conclusions Lessons Learned About Informally Institutionalized Conflict Dynamics Two questions have guided this book in its quest to understand the sources, agents, structures, and mechanisms that drive and sustain ethnonational conflicts over time. Why do ethnonational conflicts reach different degrees of violence? Why do they persevere even after strong international intervention for conflict resolution and institution building? Applying the theoretical approach of historical institutionalism, I derive answers from three cases: Serb-Albanian relations in Kosovo, Macedonian Slav-Albanian relations in Macedonia, and Bulgarian-Turkish relations in Bulgaria. They shared a number of characteristics at the end of communism, including a similar constellation between Orthodox Christian majorities and Muslim minorities, deep penetration of the Communist party into political decision-making processes, and a totalitarian political culture. Yet the con- flicts reached different levels of violence over time. Ethnonationalist violence was high in Kosovo, middle range in Macedonia, and relatively low in Bulgaria. It was also puzzling why violence persisted at mid- to low levels during the 2000s, when Kosovo and Macedonia faced postconflict reconstruction along with democratization pressures, whereas Bulgaria was only exposed to the latter. To the dismay of international observers, in all three cases interethnic violence occasionally flared or silently persevered. This book has argued that these levels of ethnonational violence and their perseverance were anchored in informally institutionalized conflict dynamics between majorities, minorities, and international agents during the formative period—a critical juncture—at the end of communism. At that time drastic shifts on multiple levels in the domestic and international 204 Conclusions environment allowed contingent events to have major consequences by setting existing conflictual relations onto different political trajectories. At the end of the critical juncture, relationships between majorities, minorities, international agents, and kin-states consolidated in conflict dynamics speci fic to each case: highly conflictual in Kosovo, semiconflictual in Macedonia , and cooperative in Bulgaria. Causal mechanisms such as ‘‘advantage of political incumbency,’’ ‘‘adaptive expectations,’’ ‘‘learning,’’ and ‘‘drift’’ in combination with a ‘‘reactive sequence’’ from the majorities fostered con- flict perpetuation, while ‘‘replacement’’ and ‘‘layering’’ contributed to change toward more peaceful relations. While constitutions, laws, and other policies officially postulated certain behaviors, these informally institutionalized dynamics unofficially conditioned the behaviors. Exogenous shocks from the international environment usually led to drastic change in the direction of higher levels of violence. Both exogenous shocks and mechanisms of change altered some aspects of the conflict dynamics as originally established, but other important residual factors continued to create incentives for conflict perpetuation. This final chapter summarizes the major arguments, explores the external validity of core claims regarding other conflicts, and highlights their relevance for scholarship on legacies, EU enlargement, informal institutions , and more recent transitions in the Middle East. Path-Dependence and Conflict Dynamics Scholars often state that conflicts are path-dependent; some have also used ideas of historical institutionalism.1 Recently Stroschein argued that historical institutionalism can be applied to understand how repeated protests can create feedback effects, alter minority-related policies, and bring moderation of conflicts.2 This book emphasizes the analytical leverage of historical institutionalism, unpacks the causal effects of policies and their timing and sequencing during critical junctures, shows the usefulness of positing certain mechanisms for change and conflict perpetuation , and elaborates on the impact of sequences of exogenous shocks for variations in violence. It brings additional rigor to understand why, when, and how these conflicts become path-dependent, that conflicts may progress in a nonlinear manner, and that some formative periods are more important than others for long-term evolution of conflicts. Unlike Informally Institutionalized Conflict Dynamics 205 structural and elite-based explanations that focus on either structure or agency and on simultaneous variations,3 path-dependence accounts for structure and agency in the same theoretical framework, and captures some of the effects of time on the outcomes of violence. This book applies historical institutionalism to reshape our understanding of the nature of conflict dynamics. Conflict dynamics are formed through the interactions of majorities, minorities, international agents, and kin-states during a critical juncture. International agents have been discussed in multiple studies on third-party intervention, but the agents’ pivotal role during critical junctures has not been adequately addressed.4 This book argues that after a critical juncture the role of international agents subsides as the agents become part of...