Economics and the Historian

Suggestions for Readings and How to Approach Them

Suggestions for Readings and How to Approach Them The readings are useful for initial excursions into the literature of economics. Economics texts and the New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics (Eatwell, Milgate, and Newman 1987) can serve as helpful sources of information on specific topics . Hawke 1980 is directed specifically toward historians. You might usefully refer to a standard introductory volume like Samuelson and Nordhaus 1985 or Stiglitz 1993 and to intermediate-level texts in microeconomics (e.g., McCloskey 19853; Milgrom and Roberts 1992) and macroeconomics (e.g., Parkin 1992, which devotes considerable effort to applying theory concepts to Canadian economic history). A. GENERAL R. A. Radford, "The Economic Organization of a P.O.W. Camp," (1945). Economics in 12 fascinating pages. Reprinted in Samuelson 1970. Robert W. Fogel, Railroads and American Economic Growth (1964), 1-37, offers seminal treatment of opportunity cost. For more along these lines see G. R. Hawke, "Transport and Social Overhead Cost" (1981). Donald N. McCloskey, The Applied Theory of Price (zd ed.). Allegedly a text, this book is filled with simple questions that even economists have difficulty answering. Every excursion into this volume produces a different list of topics that we all "must" think about, such as chaps. 1-8, 9.2, 10.1-2, u, 14, 15, 20, 22, 23.2, 24.1, 25.2 and 26. Browsing is recommended, B. STATISTICS Now that we have computers to do the work, there is little need to ingest the details of how to calculate correlation coefficients, regression lines, and 239 2.4° Suggestions for Readings t-statistics. What we do need is advice about how to scrutinize the numbers that the computer works with (to avoid the "garbage in, garbage out" syndrome ) and help in interpreting what the computer results mean. G. Ohlin, "No Safety in Numbers: Some Pitfalls of Historical Statistics" (1966) uses demographic examples to illustrate pitfalls. To pursue the matter, consult Oskar Morgenstern's classic monograph On the Accuracy of Economic Observations (1960). Roderick Floud, Quantitative Methods for Historians (1973), especially chaps. 6-8 on time series, relationships between variables, and imperfect data. Also, Byron D. Eastman, Interpreting Mathematical Economics and Econometrics (1984), especially 43-105. C. TRENDS Peter H. Lindert and Jeffrey G. Williamson, "English Workers' LivingStandards during the Industrial Revolution: A New Look" (1983). How do economists put together estimates of such concepts as living standards from fragile data? To pursue questions of living standards, consult Arthur J. Taylor, ed., The Standard of Living in Britain in the Industrial Revolution (1975) which contains both "optimistic" and "pessimistic" accounts, of which the (nontechnical ) Hartwell-Engerman paper on "Models of Immiseration: The Theoretical Basis of Pessimism" may be especiallyuseful for specifying shadowy and poorly articulated (but influential) viewpoints about the costs of economic "progress." C. K. Harley, "British Industrialization before 1841: Evidenceof Slower Growth during the Industrial Revolution" (1982). If you have good output data for 15 industries, all growing at different rates, what is the combined growth rate for industry as a whole ?Or, if you have price data for 15 important consumer products in 192.0 and 1930, what is the consumer price index or overall inflation measure linking 1920 and 1930? The answer depends on how each industry (or each consumer product) is weighted. Economists spend much effort determining such weights. Here is a good example showing the significance of such index-number issues. Kozo Yamamura, "Toward an Examination of the Economic History of Tokugawa Japan" (1973). The paper is a fine example of how to use a formal model to organize thoughts and questions about a preindustrial economy. Danger: the model may have unexpected implications. In this case, agriculturalemployment falls in all regions of Japan even though households enjoy higher living standards and presumablyconsume more farm products per person. Donald N. McCloskey, "The Industrial Revolution 1780-1860: A Survey" (1981). Note especiallythe nontechnical discussions of technological change. N. F. R. Crafts, "Income Elasticitiesof Demand and the Release of Labour by Agriculture during the British Industrial Revolution" (1980). Using types of data that are widely available, the author links developments in one set of markets (for consumer goods) with those in others (for farm labor) by taking advantage of common patterns of consumer behavior involving the income elasticity of demand (percentage change in quantity of X purchased Suggestions for Readings 141 when income rises by i percent). Basic necessities (salt, milk) tend to have low or even...