Value Change in Global Perspective

9. Conclusions

CHAPTER 9 Conclusions Throughout this book we have argued that value change is a function of both short-term and long-term forces. Because only data over time can document a trend, most of our analyses focus on eight Western European societies for which we have many surveys over a period of two decades. In chapter 2, we clearly document a sharp increase in Postmaterialism in Denmark, and a clear trend toward Postmaterialism in West Germany, Britain, The Netherlands, France, Italy, and Ireland. We also provide some evidence of a trend toward Postmaterialism in the United States. Belgium was an exception, for overall levels of Postmaterialism were only slightly higher in 1993 than they were 23 years earlier. In his first analysis of Postmaterialist values, Inglehart (1971) predicted that there would be a trend toward Postmaterialism. However, this analysis was based only upon surveys conducted in 1970, and his prediction was based on his interpretation of age-group differences. Young Europeans were far more likely to have Postmaterialist values than their elders, and Inglehart argued that these differences resulted largely from differences between the formative socialization of young Europeans and those of their elders. This interpretation was speculative, although it was buttressed by the finding, as the theory implied, that age-group differences were less pronounced in Britain than they were in Germany, The Netherlands, France, Belgium, and Italy. Inglehart acknowledged that his prediction of a trend toward Postmaterialism could not be proven with the data then at hand. As he wrote (1971, 1005), "Ultimately, of course, our thesis can be proved or disproved only with the aid of longitudinal data." Fortunately, we now have the necessary data. Some scholars, such as Gabriel A. Almond (1990), argue that "Inglehart's work is one of the few examples of successful prediction in political science." Nevertheless, as we have seen, even in recent years, some scholars have challenged the conclusion that there is a trend toward Postmaterialism, and others have argued that if such a trend exists, it does not result from differences between the formative experiences of younger and older Europeans. Critics of Inglehart's thesis have sometimes failed to understand that the value-change thesis postulates both short-term and long-term value change, 139 140 Value Change in Global Perspective and that both types of change can occur simultaneously. It has been clear from the outset that value changes do not reflect long-term forces alone. The major long-term force that drives Postmaterialism upward is generational replacement , the gradual process through which younger cohorts with relatively Postmaterialist values replace older cohorts with heavily Materialist values. If generational replacement were the only factor driving value change, there would be a gradual progression toward Postmaterialist values that would vary only as a function of changing birthrates and death rates, with any short-term declines in Postmaterialism resulting solely from sampling error. In none of the eight Western European societies we study does the trend over the past two decades fit such a pattern. Replacement is a gradual process, especially in advanced industrialized societies. One perceptive critic, James D. Wright (1978), grasped this point, and actually projected future levels of Postmaterialism in Germany using data presented in Inglehart's The Silent Revolution. He estimated that a Postmaterialist majority would arrive in West Germany only by 2015, and then only if one made projections based upon "exceedingly optimistic assumptions ." "The revolution is not only silent," Wright wrote (1978, 272), "it is proceeding at a glacial pace." Realistic estimates about the future impact of replacement must recognize that the actual pace of replacement itself will be slow. However, in the long term, its effects can transform the basic motivations of a society. Moreover , once one understands that the long-term forces that push Postmaterialism upward lead to gradual change, it is easy to understand why short-term fluctuations can swamp these long-term effects in any given year. These shortterm forces are implicit in Inglehart's theory, however, which holds that insecurity contributes to Materialism. Conversely, Harold D. Clarke and Nitish Dutl's (1991) critique, if valid, would seriously undermine Inglehart's theory: it claims that high levels of unemployment contributed to Postmaterialist values. In chapter 3, we analyze the impact of short-term forces on value change in the eight Western European societies we study over time. Our time-series analyses demonstrate that once we take the effects of inflation and unemployment into account, there is a statistically significant trend toward Postmaterialism...