Behind the Curve: Science and the Politics of Global Warming

Images

Charles David Keeling in the laboratory at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography , 1996. Credit: SIO Photographic Laboratory, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Archives, UC San Diego Library. The Keeling Curve—​ atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa Observatory, 1960–​ 2013. The Keeling Curve is the oscillating line, which tracks the actual monthly average of CO2 over time. The solid upward slope is the same data corrected for the seasonal cycles that cause the oscillations, which correlates with the annual average of CO2 . Dr. Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL (www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/ trends) and Dr. Ralph Keeling, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (http:// scrippsco2.ucsd.edu). Roger Revelle with specimens on the deck of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography research vessel E. W. Scripps, ca. 1936. Credit: Eugene Lafond Photographs , Scripps Institution of Oceanography Archives, UC San Diego Library. Monthly mean atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa Observatory, 2009–​ 13. The Keeling Curve is the widely oscillating dashed line, which plots the average measured CO2 at Mauna Loa each month, centered in the middle of the month. The solid through line is the same monthly data, corrected to account for the seasonal cycles that cause the oscillations. Source: Dr. Pieter Tans, NOAA/ ESRL (www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends) and Dr. Ralph Keeling, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu). Construction of the Mesa Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, 1965. Credit: Copyright University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, UCAR Digital Image Library. Walter Orr Roberts (left) and I. M. Pei, Mesa Laboratory, Boulder , Colorado, 1967. NCAR’s promotional photographs of the Mesa Lab emphasized the communal spaces the organization hoped would characterize the science conducted at the facility. Credit: “Commemorative Program for NCAR Lab Dedication , May 1967,” in The Design and Construction of the Mesa Laboratory online exhibit, UCAR/NCAR Archives, www. archives.ucar.edu/search/mesalab/20/10/date_desc. Copyright University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. A proposed plan for the National Institute for Atmospheric Research, 1959. Source: National Science Foundation, Preliminary Plans for a National Center for Atmospheric Research: Second Progress Report of the University Committee on Atmospheric Research (Washington, D.C.: National Science Foundation, Feb. 1959) (known as the Blue Book), Section IV-26. Woody Allen at the Mesa Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, 1973. The Mesa Lab served as the set for outdoor shots of the hospital in Allen’s futuristic comedy Sleeper. Some NCAR staff, including Stephen Schneider, appeared as extras in the film. Credit: Copyright University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, UCAR Digital Image Library. An early image of the Boeing 2707 supersonic transport, 1966. Credit: NASA. The Keeling Curve, 1951–​ 71. The 1964 gap in the monthly measurements reflects three months when Keeling did not have the funds to continue the Mauna Loa measurements. Source: William H. Matthews, William W. Kellogg, and G. D. Robinson, eds., Man’s Impact on the Climate, figure 8.11, page 234, © 1971 Massachusetts Institute of Technology, by permission of the MIT Press. CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, 1860–​ 2000. The Limits to Growth study included an image that placed the Keeling Curve (indicated here by Keeling’s actual Mauna Loa measurements, 1958–​ 71) in historical and future contexts, showing a long-term trend of exponential growth in atmospheric CO2 . Source: Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jørgen Randers, and William W. Behrens III, The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome’s Project on the Predicament of Mankind (New York: Universe Books, 1972), 72. Maurice Strong, secretarygeneral of the U.N. Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm, answering a question during a press conference at the Old Parliament Building, June 4, 1972. Credit: U.N. Photo/ Yutaka Nagata. Maurice Strong, secretary-general of the U.N. Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm, addressing the Earth Forum’s “Whale Celebration,” with Stewart Brand (arms crossed) looking on, June 5, 1972. Credit: U.N. Photo/ Yutaka Nagata. Global distribution of mean temperatures, computed (top) and observed (bottom ), 1971. Such world maps enable visualization of temperature data as global. In the 1970s, studying the earth’s systems at the global scale helped to reinforce a vision of the global environment that served both scientific and political goals. Source: J. L. Holloway Jr. and S. Manabe...