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Building a Supply-Side Regime: Western Countries, Russia, and China In February 2001, Secretary ofDefense Donald Rumsfeld launched a dramatic broadside against Moscow, charging that "Russia is an active proliferator.... They are selling and assisting countries like Iran and North Korea and India and other countries with these [missile-related] technologies which are threatening ... the United States and Western Europe and countries in the Middle East."r That same month, Washington's Central Intelligence Agency reported that "the Chinese have continued to take a very narrow interpretation of their bilateral nonproliferation commitments with the United States.... Chinese missile-related technical assistance to Pakistan continued to be substantial."21t added that "entities in Western countries in 2000 were not as important as sources for WMDrelated goods and materials as in past years."3 These statements provided Washington's assessment of how well the main missile technology suppliers-Western states, Russia, and China-complied with the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). The MTCR was announced in 1987. In prior years, no formal regime controlled missile proliferation. From the 1950S to the 1970s, the only major curbs on missile exports were through ad hoc U.S. restrictions on space technology transfers and conventional arms sales. In the 1980s, multilateral negotiations to halt missile proliferation led to the creation ofthe MTCR by the G-7 states. In the 1990s, MTCR members sought to bring other key suppliers such as Russia and China into the regime. Several rounds of diplomacy and the use of sanctions and incentives were involved in this process of building a supply-side regime to contain missile proliferation. MISSILE TECHNOLOGY PROLIFERATION AND THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE MTCR Space Technology and Ballistic Missile Transfers In the first decades of the nuclear and missile age, interstate nuclear and missile transfers were not strongly and formally curbed by a global regime. Although 41 42 BUILDING A SUPPLY-SIDE REGIME national governments did not generally share sensitive nuclear technology with other states, this approach was somewhat relaxed under programs such as the Eisenhower administration's "Atoms for Peace" initiative (1954) and the International Geophysical Year (1958). States were then given access to nuclear technology (mainly civilian technology under safeguards) and rocket technology (relevant to small rockets but not powerful missiles); this served as an incentive for them to refrain from the military use of this technology, and to forestall their indigenous development of nuclear programs. Technology transfers also attracted states into the Western and Eastern camps during the Cold War. Beginning in 1959, the United States, the Soviet Union, and West European states signed technology-sharing memorandums ofunderstanding (MOUS) with a dozen countries in Latin America and Asia, including Argentina, Brazil, India, South Korea, Mexico, Pakistan, and Taiwan.4 Through these MOUS, they transferred technical data on sounding rockets and on space launch vehicles (the equivalent ofshort-range and intermediate-range missiles, respectively), and hardware such as satellite tracking stations, launch facilities, and suborbital sounding rockets , to regional powers. The technology in these transfers was generally not directly convertible to ballistic missiles, but was relevant to rocket design, rocket components, and rocket infrastructure. Both superpowers also considered missiles to be tactical weapons, and exported short-range systems to their allies. From the 1960s, the United States selectively transferred short-range Honest John and Lance missiles to its allies, as part of a foreign policy of containment that aimed to strengthen West European defenses and to limit Soviet influence in developing countries. Washington thereby supplied 37 km range Honest John artillery rockets to its West European allies (Belgium, Denmark, France, West Germany, the Netherlands , and the U.K.), and to South Korea, Taiwan, Greece, and Turkey in the period 1959-61. It sent the 130 km range Lance missiles to the U.K., West Germany, and Italy in the 1960s and 1970s. It supplied twelve Lance launchers and over one hundred missiles to Israel in 1976, and also placed these missiles (under U.S. control) in South Korea. In addition, U.S. intermediate-range Pershing-I missiles were based in West Germany in the 1970s, and were replaced by 108 of the 1,800 km range Pershing-2 missiles in the 1980s (both these systems were under U.S. control). Washington further supplied over one hundred Polaris SLBMS to Britain beginning in 1965, and these were replaced with TridentSLBMS; this was the only U.S. transfer oflong-range missiles. Washington initially opposed but from 1972 supplied some missile design, guidance, and spin stabilizing assistance and technology...

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