Containing Missile Proliferation: Strategic Technology, Security Regimes, and International Cooperation in Arms Control

Appendix: Technical Notes on Missiles

APPENDIX: TECHNICAL NOTES ON MISSILES This book does not undertake a detailed technical examination of missiles, but a few basic features of missiles, their propulsion systems, and their WMD payloads are worth noting. Ballistic Missiles, Cruise Missiles, and Other Missiles The term "missile" refers to several types ofsystems-ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, artillery rockets, surface-to-air missiles (SAMS), and other low capability systems. The MTCR has been mainly concerned with ballistic missiles, which are the most threatening, though it can technically also cover cruise missiles and artillery rockets. Cruise missiles are the technical equivalent of unmanned aircraft; they are generally slower and technically easier to intercept (British aircraft and antiaircraft fire shot down many German V-IS in World War II, while air-to-air missiles have downed cruise missiles in recent tests), though they may still evade detection. The cruise missile threat should therefore not be underestimated , but should also not be overplayed. While over 70,000 cruise missiles have been manufactured by nineteen countries and exported to over seventy countries, two-thirds of these are antiship systems without much land attack capability, and most of the remaining systems have limited range and payload capacities. SAMS and artillery rockets have very short ranges, but have some WMD delivery capability. Low-capability I to TO km range SAMS are not significant threats, but bigger SAMS such as the 2-4 ton SA-2 and 4.7 ton Nike-Hercules have been converted into 40-180 km range surface-to-surface missiles. Artillery rockets with ranges of up to 150 km may also carry WMD payloads. Solid and Liquid Fuel Rockets use solid or liquid fuel propulsion systems. Most early U.S., Russian, and Chinese rockets used liquid fuel, while their later rockets used solid fuel; most regional powers have liquid-fuel Scud and Nodong missiles, but India's SLv-3 and sLv-derived Agni missile, Israel's Jericho, and Brazil's VLS use solid fuel. Liquid fuels have a greater specific impulse than solid fuels, which means they are more powerful and have greater range and payload capacities. Yet liquid199 Table A 1. Technical Data for Selected Ballistic Missiles Time of Altitude Weight Range Flight Velocity ofFlight Distance Missile (tons) (km) (min) (kmlsec) (km) From: To: Scud-B 6 300 4 1.8 75 Iraq Western Iran Scud-C 9 600 6 2.2 150 Iraq Tehran, Israel Nodong 16 1,000 8 3 240 N. Korea W. and N. Japan Taepodong-l 20 1,500+ 10 3.5 350 N. Korea S. and E. Japan Agni-2 20 2,000 11.5 4 465 India China css-2 64 2,500-3,500 l3-16 4.5-5 570-760 S. Arabia Israel ss-20 40 5,000 20 6 1,000 Russia France ICBM 50-200 10,000 32 7 1,350 Russia U.S. APPENDIX 20r fuel systems have many pipes, valves, and moving parts and are hard to handle . They may also be volatile and stored separately from a missile, and take time (a few minutes for Scuds, and hours or even days for other systems) to load onto a missile, and are therefore less optimal for quick launch military purposes. Thus, in theory, liquid fuels (and cryogenic fuels, which are liquefied gases) are better for satellite launchers which do not require rapid launches, while solid fuels are better for fast-launch rugged military missiles. In practice, both solid and liquid fuels are used in missiles and satellite launchers. WMD Payloads and MTCR Thresholds Ballistic missiles can carry conventional and WMD payloads. In terms of payload weights, early-generation nuclear weapons typically weigh over one ton, though they may eventually be miniaturized to under 500 kg. Chemical and biological payloads can be much lighter. The MTCR originally covered missiles that could deliver a 500 kg payload (the estimated smallest weight ofa regional power nuclear warhead) to a 300 km range. It subsequently covered missiles capable of and intended for any WMD payload, such as chemical and biological payloads that are lighter than 500 kg. A missile's range increases ifits payload weight is decreased; thus a missile having a 200 km range with a 500 kg warhead may have a 300 km range with a 200 kg warhead. In general, ballistic missiles are optimal for nuclear delivery but less optimal for chemical and biological weapons delivery, which may be better undertaken by aircraft...