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North Korea and Iran: Emerging Missile Threats On July 22,1998, a Shehab-3 rocket lifted off from the Iranian desert, flew toward the southeast, and detonated 100 seconds into its flight. The Jerusalem Post reported ominously, "Iran has joinedthe long-range missile club," adding that this development was "one ofthe toughest challenges in the history ofthe state [ofIsrael], and we are taking it seriously."ยท Iran's former president Hashemi Rafsanjani noted defensively that Tehran's missile program had "started from scratch" in response to Iraqi missile attacks on Iranian cities, and missiles then became vital to Iran's national security.2 The Tehran Times stated that the Shehab-3 test "aimed at demonstrating Iran's determination that it was not ready to accept the hegemony ofothers."3 Yethostile slogans against Israel were painted on the Shehab-3, and Iran's defense minister subsequently announced plans for longer range Shehab-4 and Shehab-s rockets. These could strike Europe and the United States. Five years earlier, in May 1993, Iranian observers watched four North Korean missiles being fired into the Sea of Japan. One of these was the Nodong, from which the Shehab-3 was derived. The Nodong also formed the first stage of the longer range Taepodong-I. On August 3I, 1998, North Korea stunned the world by launching this rocket over Japan and into the Pacific. The following year, Pyongyang was also preparing to launch the more powerful Taepodong-2, making it the first hostile country to threaten the United States since China began deploying ICBMS in the early 1980s. How did North Korea and Iran build long-range missiles? What motivated their missile programs, and can international diplomacy and technology barriers contain their missile activities? NORTH KOREA North Korea built several hundred 300 km range Scud-B and 600 km range Scud-C missiles in the 1980s and 1990S; it also built more than one hundred of 128 NORTH KOREA AND IRAN 129 the 1,000 km range Nodong (tested in 1993), a few of the 2,000 km range Taepodong-I (tested in 1998), and the 4,000-6,000 km range Taepodong-2 (that had not flown as of 2002). Pyongyang pursued a missile program due to security considerations (to enhance its wMD-based deterrent), as well as with commercial motivations (to acquire revenue from missile exports) and political objectives (as a bargaining chip to secure economic aid and political recognition from the West). U.S. missile talks beginning in 1996 did not halt Pyongyang's missile activity, but economic liberalization, improvements in regional security , and international engagement may restrain Pyongyang's missile advances. The Development ofa Long-Range Missile Capability North Korea's missile program first involved low-technology surface-to-airmissiles , cruise missiles, and artillery rockets in the 1960s and 1970S and then moved on to produce more capable liquid-fuel Scuds, Nodongs, and Taepodongs in the 1980s and 1990s. In the first phase ofmissile activity,4 it purchased several lowtechnology systems: Russian SA-2S in 1962-63, ssc-2b Samlet coastal-defense cruise missiles in 1965, SS-N-2 Styx antiship missiles in 1967-68, and about fifty ofthe 55 km range Frog-5 artillery rockets in 1968 (it later obtained twentyfive to fifty of the 70 kmrange Frog-7s from Egypt in 1975-76). Further, under a September 1971 military cooperation agreement with Beijing, North Korea obtained the HQ-I (the Chinese version of the SA-2), HQ-2 (an upgraded HQ-I), and HY-I (the Silkworm, which is China's version of the Styx) systems, and it reverse engineered and domestically produced some of these systems. North Korea also established an indigenous manufacturing capability. Premier Kim II Sung set up the Rambung Military Academy for weapons development in 1965. Its First Department, or the Department of Missile Engines, studied German V-I and V-2 and Soviet Frog designs. By the late 1970s, North Korea had developed better missile facilities such as the 125 Factory in Pyongyang , a military research facility at Sanum-dong (25 km north of Pyongyang), and the Musadan-ri launch station. The Guided Missile Division ofthe Academy of Defense Sciences, and the Fourth Machine Industry Bureau of the Second Economic Committee, undertook North Korea's missile program.5 From 1975, Pyongyang tried to build three rockets and missiles-Frog-5, -6, and -7 artillery rockets (concentrating on the maintenance of these systems); a surface-to-surface version ofthe HQ-2 (the system had a 150...

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