European Elections and Domestic Politics: Lessons from the Past and Scenarios for the Future

8. Non-voting in European Parliament elections and support for European integration

E I G H T Non-voting in European Parliament elections and support for European integration hermann schmitt and cees van der eijk Participation in European Parliament elections is low and has been so since the first of these elections in 1979. While considerable research effort has been invested to explore the causes of the meager turnout in European Parliament elections, the results so far are somewhat inconclusive. On the aggregate level, we know quite well which aspects of the context of the election matter. It does make a difference, of course, whether voting is compulsory or not. It also matters whether European Parliament elections are held concurrently with national first-order (or other ‘more important’ second-order) elections or whether this is not the case; whether they are conducted close to national first-order elections or not (see chapter 1). We are somewhat less certain about the effects of Sunday (versus weekday) voting; some authors report a positive effect of Sunday voting on turnout (e.g., Oppenhuis 1995; van Egmond, de Graaf, and van der Eijk 1998), but in Franklin’s analyses in chapter 1 this factor did not exert any significant effect (see note 5 in that chapter). On the individual level things seem to be less clear. Traditional predictors of individual turnout—social integration, political mobilization, and party attachment—are found to be as important in European Parliament elections as they are in any other election. But controversy reigns in the literature on a question that is not only of academic interest but that also 145 chapter contains some political dynamite. This question is whether abstentions in European Parliament elections carry a hidden political message like “I don’t agree with the whole European business,” or “Why do we need a European Parliament. Let’s get things right at home,” and so on. This chapter sets out to determine the relative importance of ‘Euro-skeptic’ non-voting in European Parliament elections as compared to what may be called ‘Euro-neutral’ abstentions. Based on the 1999 European Election Study, two factors that may cause ‘Euro-skeptic’ nonvoting are distinguished: lack of support for the EU (“I don’t like Europe”), and lack of EU policy appeal of political parties (“If it comes to Europe there is no reasonable choice”). Four categories of Euro-neutral abstentions are controlled for: lack of support for national politics (“I don’t like the way politics is run in this country”); lack of political parties’ general appeal (“There is no party I can support ”); lack of involvement (“I don’t care”); and lack of efficacy (“My vote does not matter”). Social structure is also considered as a more remote social factor which precedes the political ones. Finally, the evolution of Euro-skeptic causes of abstention is determined in a diachronic cross-national perspective by analyzing survey evidence from three European Parliament elections (1989, 1994, and 1999). Motives for non-voting ForEuropeanParliamentelectionsinparticular,itmightbeusefultoexpand existing notions of the motives and political aims which a voter may pursue by abstaining from the election. These motives are related to different possible outcomes of an election. For present purposes, it suffices to distinguish two kinds of outcome: policies and legitimacy. Almost every election installs a new, or confirms the old, government. The government’s political choices ultimately result in a set of governmental policies. These can be regarded as the policy outcome of elections. Based on past performanceandonelectionprograms ,votersmaydevelopexpectationsaboutlikelypolicy outcomes of an election. To the extent that voters attempt to influence policy outcomes by their choice for one of the parties, non-voting will occur when no relation is perceived between election results and policy outcomes. This is a very likely source of non-voting in European Parliament elections. These elections are different from most other ones because they do not contribute to the formation of a government. The policy consequences of different outcomes of a European Parliament election are therefore difficult to determine (which is not to say that they do not exist). This factor goes a long way in explaining why levels of participation 146 Hermann Schmitt and Cees van der Eijk are generally much lower in European Parliament elections than in elections for a national parliament (cf. Schmitt and Mannheimer 1991). However, general elections are not only a way to collectively decide about future policies,1 they also add to the legitimacy of the political regime. This is the second outcome of elections...