The Success of the Left in Latin America: Untainted Parties, Market Reforms, and Voting Behavior

Chapter 3: Micro Explanations for Voting Left in Latin America

Chapter 3 Micro Explanations for Voting Left in Latin America L atin American voting behavior is usually understood as being highly volatile and unpredictable due to the lack of strong party and ideological identifications. Latin Americans seem mainly to base their votes on short-term factors such as economic conditions (Roberts and Wibbels 1999; Cantón and Jorrat 2002) and candidate image (Echegaray 2005; Weyland 2003). It is in this context that recent victories of leftist parties are puzzling. If ideology and party identi fication are not relevant voting clues in Latin America (Echegaray 2005), why are voters choosing parties identified with the ideological Left? Is the vote for leftist parties another example of economic voting theory according to which voters punish the incumbent party for poor economic results? Are electorates in Latin America mainly choosing leftist parties because their candidates are, on average, more appealing than those of the Center and Right parties? Or, alternatively, are Latin Americans becoming more ideologically and policy-oriented by voting for the Left because ideology does indeed matter and voters are rejecting the neoliberal paradigm? It is important to take note that this is not the first time in the history of Latin America that leftist parties have won elections. As chapter 1 showed, the prevalent ideology was leftist during part of the 1960s and 1970s. The main difference is that the meaning of voting Left is not as clear today. For example, when Salvador Allende, leader of the Chilean 67 Socialist Party, won the presidential election in 1970, his voters identified themselves with a socialist ideology, and they were largely in favor of nationalizing major companies, broadening the public sector, and other “leftist” policies (Baviskar 2004). At present, in Brazil, for example, we do not know whether Brazilians voted for Inácio “Lula” da Silva because they had become more leftist or because they were punishing incumbent Fernando H. Cardoso for not reducing unemployment. In the view of many political analysts, the current increase in the vote for the Left in Latin America is a consequence of “reform fatigue.” Simply stated, this argument holds that because voters are tired of marketoriented economic reforms and their consequences, they are voting in favor of parties that allow more state intervention in the economy. Data from the Latinobarómetro 2002 (Economist 2002) support this argument and indicate that the percentage of those who strongly agree or agree that the state should leave economic activity to the private sector diminished from 1998 to 2002 in all Latin American countries except for Mexico. This tendency of a decline in enthusiasm for market reforms was also recently stated by Baker and Greene (2011). Following the same argument, AmericasBarometer 2010 data showing high levels of support for an active role for the national government in owning enterprises and industries, creating jobs, implementing policies to reduce income inequality, providing retirement pensions and health care services, and even ensuring the general well-being of the people in every Latin American country are quite impressive. Figure 3.1 presents the results of an index that measures government interventionism in the economy through the items listed above; values above 50 indicate that people prefer that the state, rather than the market, manage different aspects of the economy and their own welfare. Paraguay is the country in the region with more pro-state attitudes, followed by Uruguay , Costa Rica, and Chile. The only country included in the survey that has a majority pro-market attitude is not Latin American: it is the United States. As Tussie and Heidrich argue, speaking about the leftist tide, “if we are to point out the single coincidence in this diversity, there is a very significant one: the emergence of a pragmatic belief in a role for state management” (2008: 64). 68 The Success of the Left in Latin America P C Costa R ugu Ur gu a ar P ica y ua y ua C Bel Ch Costa R e liz hile ica D i i b R a Guy g a Nicar li b ana gua Do ominica Surin Jama pub e n R am aica lic b Ecuad Colom Surin dor bia am M a Br ent g Ar i azil tina G E tem Gua ad El Salv x Me ala dor xico Trinidad T G zu ene V oba d & T Toba tem Gua ela o g a ala...