Superpower Influence on the Arab-Israeli Dispute: An Expected Utility Analysis, 1948–1978

We develop an expected utility model of the Middle Eastern conflict to examine the relationship between the conflict and cooperative behavior of the Middle Eastern countries and superpower influence on the region. Empirical findings in this study support the following hypotheses: one nation’s conflictual behavior is reciprocated by its enemy; as the relationship between the two superpowers improves, the stability in the Middle East deteriorates; and as the superpowers become more cooperative (conflictual) with the potential initiator’s enemy, that potential initiator is less (more) likely to escalate conflict. One of the findings in this study thus suggests that the United States not send wrong messages to Israelis by becoming less cooperative with them on the issues related to the Middle East peace talks.