Strait Paradoxes: The Conciliation-Confrontation Cycle and Possibilities for Resolution of the China-Taiwan Conflict

This article discusses the trajectory of Taiwan Strait relations in the postwar era and assesses differences in mainland and Taiwanese attitudes and policies. The first part of the article shows that both sides are stuck in a confrontational mode, even as bilateral economic and cultural ties have deepened. Rigid positions, a repeated conciliation-confrontation cycle, and failure to begin meaningful negotiations have shaped the relationship since 1949. America’s awkward third-party position actually prevents the two Chinese entities from forthrightly dealing with each other: Taiwan relies on the United States as a protector, and China focuses its efforts on avoiding a military conflict with the United States. Finally, the article assesses the future direction of China-Taiwan relations and the possibilities for a negotiated settlement of Taiwan Strait issues.