Aileen Baviera: Philippines–China Relations, Maritime Disputes, and the Broader Environment

In a professorial address published in Philippine Studies: Historical and Ethnographic Viewpoints in 2014, titled "Domestic Interests and Foreign Policy in China and the Philippines: Implications for the South China Sea Disputes," Aileen Baviera (AB) presented her analysis of Philippines–China relations at that time. In an interview held on 11 February 2019 for PostScript, the video series of this journal dedicated to conversations with contributors to the journal, Michael D. Pante (MP), speaking on behalf of the journal's editorial team, followed up with Professor Baviera on her thoughts about the changing dynamic in the region. The video can be accessed in the journal's YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/wE2a_TpWJU8. The interview text below is an edited version of the transcript of the face-to-face conversation.

Baviera is professor of Asian Studies at the University of the Philippines Diliman and editor-in-chief of Asian Politics and Policy. Her fields of expertise include contemporary China studies, China–Southeast Asia relations, Asia-Pacific security, territorial and maritime disputes, and regional integration. She has published widely in these areas. She served as dean of the Asian Center, University of the Philippines Diliman, from 2003 to 2009.

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In your 2014 professorial address, you identified regime type, nationalism, and culture as key aspects of domestic politics in both the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the Philippines that influence their respective foreign policies toward one another. How do these aspects affect their diplomatic relations, and how have these aspects changed now that Pres. Xi Jinping is more deeply ensconced in power today than five years ago?

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Since I delivered that lecture–it has been more than four years already, I think–things have changed very quickly both in China and in the relationship between the Philippines and China. Of course, regime type has not really changed in China, although you do see a much more centralized power structure there. Xi Jinping has lifted term limits on his presidency and taken direct responsibility for many key aspects of Chinese foreign policy. As far as regime type is concerned, Xi Jinping's concentration of power is probably the most significant change. Here in the Philippines we have had a change in administration. Certainly, the transfer from the Aquino government to the Duterte government has meant a seachange as far as our China policy is concerned.

Nationalism in China, which is another factor that we identified in 2014, still plays a role and is probably a part of the strategy of the Chinese leadership. Because China is now facing some internal economic challenges, there is a reason to try to rally the people more strongly behind the government. Thus, there is a tendency to whip up nationalism a bit more than in past years of economic prosperity. In the Philippines, nationalism has also taken a different turn since the Aquino government. Nationalism then was very much targeted against China because of its activities in disputed areas in the South China Sea (or the West Philippine Sea claimed by the Philippines). Now, the policy under Duterte has changed into a friendlier attitude toward China, and this has somewhat affected public perceptions. There are still indications that public distrust of China is very high among Filipinos despite the Duterte government's policy turnaround. But it is apparently no longer an issue that stirs popular nationalism, except for a few organizations or personalities who continue to rally around this question.

Culture is the third factor; it is the slowest to change. Culture continues to affect—in much subtler ways—the approach that both countries, the Philippines and China, take in their diplomacy toward each other.

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How has the 2016 ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague affected these three domestic factors? How has it affected diplomatic relations between the PRC and the Philippines?

ab

The ruling, albeit in our favor, posed a dilemma for the Philippines. It was reached in 2016 when we were having a transition to a new government. Basically, we...