Abe's Russia Policy: All Cultivation and No Fruit

Since returning to power in December 2012, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has made Japan's relations with Russia one of his foreign policy priorities. Above all, he has committed himself to resolving the decades-old territorial dispute over what Russia terms the Southern Kuril Islands (known as the Northern Territories in Japan) and to signing a peace treaty "with his own hand." ¹ Pursuing this aim, Abe has met President Vladimir Putin as frequently as possible, achieving a total of 25 meetings by the start of 2019. These efforts culminated in an agreement in November 2018 to accelerate territorial talks based on the 1956 Joint Declaration, which states that Russia is willing to transfer two of the four disputed islands to Japan after signing a peace treaty.

With a resolution to this World War II–era dispute apparently in sight, territorial negotiations will dominate the bilateral agenda during the remainder of Abe's premiership, which must end by September 2021. Any analysis of contemporary Japan-Russia relations therefore requires an assessment of the prospects of a territorial agreement finally being reached. Before this, however, it is useful to reflect on how Abe's single-minded pursuit of a legacy-defining deal with Russia has more broadly shaped Japan's political, economic, and security relations with its northern neighbor.

Abe's policy for securing a territorial breakthrough has been officially characterized as his "new approach" to Japan's relations with Russia.² This was announced during his visit to Sochi in May 2016, and it is understood to consist of two components. The first is Abe's willingness to moderate Japan's territorial demands, effectively abandoning the previous insistence that Russia acknowledge Japanese sovereignty over all four of the disputed islands. Second, the Japanese leader has actively promoted expanding cooperation with Russia across a broad range of sectors, using the slogan that Russia is Japan's bilateral relationship with "the greatest underlying potential." ³ This also represents a change from previous administrations, which had sought to partially hold back engagement as a means of incentivizing Russian concessions. By contrast, Abe's calculation is that, by frontloading cooperation, he can add dynamism to the relationship and create momentum toward achieving the desired territorial breakthrough.

This essay makes the case that despite Abe's careful cultivation of closer ties with Russia in the areas of politics, economics, and security, a favorable territorial deal is still likely to elude him. Above all, this is because the conditions that Russia will apply to even a two-island deal will be too demanding for any Japanese leader to accept.

Expanding Political Ties

In terms of political relations, Abe has led by example and worked hard to cultivate personal trust with Putin. As well as holding frequent summits, he has publicly praised the Russian leader, describing him as "a man who keeps promises" and someone who "is dear to me as a partner." ⁴ It is possible that Abe genuinely does admire the Russian strongman, yet the main reason for his emphasis on this personal relationship is the belief that Putin has the power and political will to make a territorial deal. This is based on the understanding that only a popular Russian leader with clear nationalist credentials could force through territorial concessions against domestic opposition. Added to this is the fact that Putin has already approved border agreements with China in 2004 and Norway in 2010. He is also the first Soviet or Russian leader since 1960 to acknowledge the validity of the 1956 Joint Declaration and its offer to transfer the islands of Shikotan and Habomai to Japan after the signing of a peace treaty.

The interactions between Abe and Putin inevitably attract most attention, but it is important to note that the recent improvement in political relations has spread beyond the two leaders. As would be expected, there are also regular meetings at the level of foreign ministers and deputy foreign ministers. Furthermore, interparliamentary ties have expanded considerably. For instance, in a little-noted development, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) signed a cooperation...