Financial maturity, diffusion of telecommunications technology, and economic growth in Asia

This paper employs Granger causality tests to examine linkages between economic growth, measured by changes in real per capita GDP, financial maturity, measured by an index – calculated by using principal component analysis, and the diffusion of telecommunications technology (DTT) in 21 Asian countries over the period 1961-2012. We advance on previous studies with (a) advanced estimation procedures (panel cointegration techniques and panel Granger causality tests); and (b) the inclusion of all three potentially two-way interacting variables conjointly. Our findings are not uniform: they vary based on the region and country that is studied. We find that in the case of Bangladesh, Philippines, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates and for Total Asia, financial maturity leads to economic growth, lending support to the supply-leading hypothesis. This implies that economic growth depends upon the level of financial maturity of the countries. In the case of Hong Kong, South Korea, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, and Vietnam, economic growth leads to financial maturity, lending support to the demand-following hypothesis. This implies that economic growth determines the level of financial maturity. For Bangladesh, Philippines, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Total Asia, financial maturity leads to economic growth, in line with the supply-leading hypothesis. In case of China, Hong Kong, Japan, India, Iran, Thailand, Kuwait, East Asia, South Asia, and West Asia, economic growth and financial maturity cause each other, lending support to both the demand-following and supply-leading hypotheses. Furthermore, in the case of India, Malaysia, and Philippines, economic growth leads to DTT, congruent with the demand-following hypothesis. On the other hand, in the case of Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Singapore, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Asia, South East Asia, and Total Asia, DTT leads to economic growth, lending support to the supply-leading hypothesis. By contrast, for China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Qatar, and East Asia, economic growth and DTT are self-reinforcing and subject to feedback consistent with both the demand-following and supply-leading hypotheses. Finally, in the case of Hong Kong, Pakistan, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, United Arab Emirates, South East Asia, and Total Asia, DTT leads to financial maturity, lending support to the supply-leading hypothesis, while for China, India, Kuwait, Qatar, and West Asia, financial maturity leads to DTT, lending support to the demand-following hypothesis. In case of Malaysia, financial maturity and DTT cause each other thus supporting both the demand-following and supply-leading hypotheses.