Foreword

This issue was first conceptualized as an examination of the American Decline. We wanted to know: Is America in decline? If so, what does it mean for America and the rest of the world? If not, why has the idea gained so much ground? Complicating our assessment of America’s trajectory was the fact that much was changing across the globe—from Turkey’s more assertive foreign policy in the Middle East to China’s increasing involvement in Central Asia and Latin America. Consequently, the theme of the issue became The World in Transition, and it is our attempt to track some of these major developments and examine their causes and implications for global security and stability.

We begin this issue with an article by Rob Asghar which argues that the narrative of American decline is based too heavily on economic trends and does not consider the unique cultural factors that have led to America’s success in a globalized world. Asghar contends that China and India have a long way to go, and that as long as globalization remains the main arena of international collaboration and cooperation, reports of American decline are still premature.

Next we look at two major actors in the international financial system: the Group of 20 (G20) and the European Union. Given the concerns about the legitimacy of G20’s membership, Alex Brill outlines a set of mission-based, quantitative criteria that can bolster confidence in the organization and increase its effectiveness. Lauren M. Phillips explores the issue of joint sovereign borrowing as an alternative and highly effective way to generate credibility for the European Union. Using the example of bonds issued to support bailout packages for Ireland and Portugal, she explores the potential success of future European joint sovereign bonds.

Moving east, we look at Turkey. Sinan Ulgen writes about the transformations in the country’s foreign policy, particularly in light of Turkey’s self-conception as a simultaneously Middle Eastern, Balkan, Caucasian, Central Asian, Caspian, Mediterranean, Gulf, and Black Sea country. Ulgen shows that while Turkey’s national positioning and goals are clearly ambitious, they are not without risks and limitations.

Our next set of essays looks at China and its growing influence. Yukon Huang examines recent politically charged events in China that have intensified discussions about the potential for economic and political reforms under the auspices of the Communist Party. Erica S. Downs discusses how Chinese investments in mining and energy sectors are benefiting the broader economy in Afghanistan, while R. Evan Ellis examines the relationship between China and the Republic of Suriname, highlighting emerging challenges accompanying the expansion of Chinese populations and businesses. Brahma Chellaney evaluates the China-India relationship and argues that the future of Asian economic renaissance hinges on more harmonious relations between the two hostile neighbors.

Yasuhiro Matsuda also examines bilateral relations with China from a Japanese perspective. His article argues that the growth of the perception of China as a threat has led the Japanese to incorporate a “hedging” strategy into its foreign policy towards the country in which the most important component has been the strengthening of Japan’s alliance with the United States. William Brooks discusses the challenges the U.S.-Japan alliance faced with the 2009 transfer of political power in Japan.

Next we look at democratic transitions and the lack thereof. Brian Joseph writes about Burma, which, in less than a year, has unexpectedly transitioned from an oppressive dictatorship to “a reform-minded government with a veneer of democratic legitimacy.” Serhiy Kudelia discusses recent developments in three post-Soviet countries—Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus—where governments’ repressive actions may be losing efficacy and popular demonstrations may create enough pressure for regime change. Fathali M. Moghaddam presents a psychological analysis of dictatorships and democracies, arguing that a democracy cannot be sustained without the psychological changes necessary to remove the “springboard to dictatorship” that repeatedly brings dictators to power, even after countless revolutions.

We then turn our attention to the upcoming expiration of the Kyoto Protocol. Christopher Napoli argues that until the problem of collective action is overcome, initiatives that give countries positive incentives to reduce emissions offer the...