The Regional Implications of Kosovo's Policy of Independence

Introduction

Both the political and the security future of the Balkans are highly dependent on the situation in the newly created state of Kosovo. After the ethnic Albanian leadership declared unilateral independence in February 2008 without providing the Serbian minority with a durable solution, the international community somehow ignored consideration of the scenarios the Albanian decision might have on the Balkan region marking "a turning point in international politics."¹ While having in mind that "subject peoples must be prepared for political independence before being granted it,"² this article analyzes the conundrums and possible complications that Kosovo's independence may cause. The current situation, characterized by unviable political, economic, and social components, can easily generate new violence, both within the borders of Kosovo and in its neighboring countries. I will examine three possible scenarios. First, the Serbian minority, accounting for less than 8 percent of Kosovo's total population,³ which has not yet openly expressed itself, may decide to claim autonomy and develop even stronger links with Serbia. Second, Albanians living in Macedonia, accounting officially for 25.2 percent and unofficially close to 40 percent of the total population,⁴ may demand secession from the former Yugoslav republic and unite with Kosovo or Albania, or both, if the idea of creating Greater Albania (dating back to the 1878 League of Prizren)⁵ is to be followed. Third, as long as post-Dayton Bosnia is a weak state with an underperforming economy and a malfunctioning multiethnic society, Serbs living in Republika Srpska, one of two entities of Bosnia and Herzegovina, may decide to support Serbs from Kosovo and thus vote on secession from Bosnia and link to Serbia—a difficult, but possible project.

Thus, this article aims at exploring discourses and linkages between Serbs, Albanians, and internationals, their production, and the historical momentum in a political consciousness. Moreover, it aims at understanding under what conditions all actors concerned should act as a positive driving force to master a problem. Attention is paid to conflict minimization between ideologically different groups and therefore under what circumstances they might cooperate.

Serbs in Kosovo: What Next?

The first argument considers the Serbian majority inhabiting northern Kosovo. This majority has rejected independence of the province to such an extent that it would be ready to claim autonomy and link itself to Serbia. In their analysis, Marcelo Kacowicz and Pawel Lutomski argue that after the humanitarian intervention in 1999, the final status of Kosovo became a major issue of discussion, and it was the Serbian government which encouraged the "return of Serbs to strategic locations, particularly in northern Kosovo, as a means for eventual partition."⁶ Thus, Serbian denial of independence was an expected reaction. In his attempt to warn the European Union and the United States of America, Boris Tadić, the Serbian President, while speaking at the security conference in Munich, called on everybody to "be very careful about cutting corners … [and] remain vigilant of the dangers of expediency and take seriously the strategic priorities we all share."⁷ Such a position finds its justification in a study offered by Christopher Layne who argues that "because of Kosovo's historical and cultural importance to them, Serbs view Kosovo as an integral part of their nation, and hence they reject ethnic Albanian demands for independence and are unwilling to give up the province."⁸

Therefore, in November 2007, Serbian officials proposed a Hong Kong model based on "one country, two systems" policy for Kosovo, but the Kosovo Albanian leadership rejected the idea, seeing it as inappropriate. In his statement delivered on 5 November 2007, Vojislav Koštunica, Serbian Prime Minister at the time, stipulated:

Stability, sustainability, and functionality of the model applied in the case of Hong Kong emanate from the fact that the agreement was reached through negotiations, while recognizing a fundamental principle underpinning the modern international order, and that is respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity of internationally recognized states. Equally, the case of Hong Kong is a good example showing that a stable and good solution can by no means be arrived at through unilateral...