The Scientist Speculates Edited by I. J. Good (review)

The Science ofHuman Communication. Edited byWilbur Schramm. New York: Basic Boob, 1963. Pp. vi-l-158. $4.50. One ofthe new sciences which have mushroomed in recent years is "communication research." Because communication, in the wide sense, is so fundamental to social activity, theory and investigation in this field are lively areas where psychologists, linguists, political scientists, and sociologists mingle. This short book consists ofeleven talks on the subject which were presented over the Voice ofAmerica in 1962. The authors, whose backgrounds are helpfully supplied, are all active workers in the various facets ofcommunication research. Their topics range from mass media to personality factors in susceptibilityto persuasion, and from the effect oftelevision on children to programmed instruction. As a whole, these essays present a rather briefand perhaps superficial survey, but they point out the highlights of current thinking to the general reader. No specialized prior knowledge is needed to appreciate the many influences acting on the process of auditory and visual communication. One chapter may have special relevance to biologic scientists. The section on diffusion ofnew ideas by Elihu Katz, ofthe Department of Sociology, University of Chicago, describes someofhis interesting studies onthespread ofinformation onnewdrugs among physicians. We have only begun to scratch the surface ofdiffusion of information. Thus therearerecognized to bethreedifferentkinds ofwhat arecalledadopting units: adopting a new hybrid corn involves individuals; the sustained use ofcontraceptives requires cooperating groups; and fluoridationofthe water supplyrequires group decision but leaves no room fornonadopters. It is likelythat a clearerunderstanding oftheseprocesses will go a long way in bringing the fruits ofmodern medical and scientific research to the people who need and deserve them. S. O.Watfe, M.D. Lilly Research Laboratories Indianapolis 6, Indiana The Scientist Speculates. Edited by I.J. Good. New York: Basic Boob, 1963. Pp. xvii-f413 · $6.95. Ihavealways been fascinated byanthologies. Thesesmorgasbörds oftheprinted word seem to offer the reader a distilled extract ofthe best that has been thought and expressed on a subject. Most ofthose I have read have beenexcellent, reflecting, no doubt, the wide interest and cultivated taste ofthe compiler. For this reason I am puzzled, annoyed, and disappointed in this book. The concept behind the book, with its intriguing title, is "an anthology of partly baked ideas," according to the chief editor, I. J. Good, an English mathematician and statistician. From a far-ranging collection ofsources, 123 contributions have been selected as "a speculation, a question of some novelty, a suggestion for a novel experiment, a stimulating analogy, or a classification." Indeed, Dr. Good starts offwith a formula that thelengthofapti (partlybaked idea) shouldbe io(gpx/z)words, wherex, theimportance ofthe topic, is between 0 and 1 and? is the bakedness, less than unity ... if you follow. 127 Now, in this mulligan stew are items ranging from the highly technical "A Question concerning Fourier Series" to the one-sentence contribution by "Anon.": "Half-baked ideas ofpeople are better than ideas ofhalf-baked people." There is the lucid theory oflife on the stars by Harlow Shapley, on one hand, and on the other a half-page item by the editor on remote-control dentistry. A quotation from this pbi would, I think, enable the reader ofthis review to evaluate the long-term merit ofthe book: "Ifa dentist could operate by remote control, he would be able to work sitting down in comfort at a control panel, and he would become less tired and make fewer mistakes, provided ofcourse that the remote-control apparatus was good enough." Incidentally, the editor includes twenty-five ofhis "partly baked" ideas in the anthology. I think it is the unevenness ofthe contributions that is so disconcerting. J. D. Bernal presents an excellently written essay on speculation in modern science and uses as an example his own idea on irrigating desert regions near the seacoast. On the other hand, O. G. Selfridge offers as "practical" climate control for the Los Angeles area a very thin sheet ofpolyethylene at a depth ofabout ioo feet (weighted by anchors) over a 200-mile stretch of sea. This would presumably break the temperature inversion. However, the resulting rainfall would be catastrophic, and "many of the houses built on the sides of hills in the Los Angeles area would slide down...