Known Knowns and Known Unknowns: Measuring Myanmar’s Military Capabilities

As then US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld stated in characteristic fashion, some security issues are easily researched and well understood, while others pose greater problems. Failure to recognize these “known knowns” and “known unknowns”, or to acknowledge information gaps, can lead to misconceptions and errors of judgement. There are also mysteries — the “unknown unknowns”. The study of Myanmar’s armed forces (or Tatmadaw) is a case in point, yet anyone attempting to study them faces problems at three levels. At the first are the traps lying in wait for all who engage in such intellectual exercises, and strive for precision, balance and objectivity. At the second level are the challenges inherent in the study of any country’s military capabilities. At the third level are the difficulties encountered by anyone studying modern Myanmar. Due mainly to the lack of reliable data, however, an accurate, detailed and nuanced assessment of Myanmar’s military capabilities is currently impossible. It is difficult even to make judgements about its order of battle and defence expenditure, let alone the Tatmadaw’s combat proficiency. Yet these kinds of issues are critical to an understanding of Myanmar’s security.