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Reflections on the Future of Cuba
- Cuban Studies
- University of Pittsburgh Press
- Volume 39, 2008
- pp. 85-91
- 10.1353/cub.0.0013
- Article
- Additional Information
Those who have spent their lifetimes studying Cuba know that predicting its future has always been a fool's errand. Given the speculations that arose following the illness of Fidel Castro, I undertook the task, with some trepidation, of reflecting on that future. I argue that, though anything may happen, it is likely that the forces of continuity will prevail, defying the expectations in both Washington and Miami, where the rupture scenario has always been favored in a way that has not led to the formulation of a realistic policy toward the island.
Aquellos que han dedicado sus vidas a estudiar a Cuba saben que tratar de anticipar el futuro de la isla es tarea de tontos. Pero en vista de las especulaciones que surgieron en torno a la enfermedad de Fidel Castro, me atreví, con cierto temor, a reflexionar sobre ese futuro. Argumento que aunque cualquier cosa puede suceder, es probable que la continuidad se imponga, negando las expectativas tanto en Washington como en Miami, donde siempre ha prevalecido una visión de ruptura que no ha favorecido la elaboración de una política realista hacia la isla.
