Determinants of Migration to and from Bolivar State, Venezuela for 1961 and 1990: The Effect of Ciudad Guayana on Migration

In 1959, Venezuela created an industrial growth pole in Bolivar State as an attempt to direct population away from Caracas. Regression analysis was applied to determine whether the predictor variables pertaining to states of origin or destination for life-time inmigrants and outmigrants to and from Bolivar differed between 1961 and 1990 as a result of this program. In addition, migration occurring one year prior to the 1961 and 1990 censuses was also considered in separate regressions. Results indicated that 1961 life-time inmigrants responded to distance, while, 1990 life-time inmigrants responded to distance, population, and industry. Whereas in 1961, Bolivar could only attract migrants from the surrounding area, by 1990 migrants were being recruited from the more populous states suggesting that the industrial growth pole had obtained a size that attracted further growth. The predictor variables for life-time outmigrants as of 1961 were income, distance, and population, whereas 1990 life-time outmigrants only responded to income.