Are short‐lived jobs stepping stones to long‐lasting jobs?

B Cockx, M Picchio - Oxford Bulletin of Economics and …, 2012 - Wiley Online Library
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2012Wiley Online Library
This article assesses whether short‐lived jobs (lasting one quarter or less and involuntarily
ending in unemployment) are stepping stones to long‐lasting jobs (enduring 1 year or more)
for Belgian long‐term unemployed school‐leavers. We proceed in two steps. First, we
estimate labour market trajectories in a multi‐spell duration model that incorporates lagged
duration and lagged occurrence dependence. Second, in a simulation we find that (fe) male
school‐leavers accepting a short‐lived job are, within 2 years, 13.4 (9.5) percentage points …
Abstract
This article assesses whether short‐lived jobs (lasting one quarter or less and involuntarily ending in unemployment) are stepping stones to long‐lasting jobs (enduring 1 year or more) for Belgian long‐term unemployed school‐leavers. We proceed in two steps. First, we estimate labour market trajectories in a multi‐spell duration model that incorporates lagged duration and lagged occurrence dependence. Second, in a simulation we find that (fe)male school‐leavers accepting a short‐lived job are, within 2 years, 13.4 (9.5) percentage points more likely to find a long‐lasting job than in the counterfactual in which they reject short‐lived jobs.
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