Budget balance through revenue or spending adjustments?: Some historical evidence for the United States

H Bohn - Journal of monetary economics, 1991 - Elsevier
Journal of monetary economics, 1991Elsevier
The paper provides a historical perspective on the issue of whether budget deficits are
typically eliminated by increased taxes or by reduced spending. By examining US budget
data from 1792–1988, I conclude that about 50–65% of all deficits due to tax cuts and about
65–70% of all deficits due to higher government spending have been eliminated by
subsequent spending cuts, while the remainder was eliminated by subsequent tax
increases. In contrast to previous studies, the empirical analysis uses error-correction …
Abstract
The paper provides a historical perspective on the issue of whether budget deficits are typically eliminated by increased taxes or by reduced spending. By examining U.S. budget data from 1792–1988, I conclude that about 50–65% of all deficits due to tax cuts and about 65–70% of all deficits due to higher government spending have been eliminated by subsequent spending cuts, while the remainder was eliminated by subsequent tax increases. In contrast to previous studies, the empirical analysis uses error-correction models in a way that the intertemporal budget constraint is imposed in the estimation stage.
Elsevier