Consumption strikes back? Measuring long-run risk

LP Hansen, JC Heaton, N Li - Journal of Political economy, 2008 - journals.uchicago.edu
LP Hansen, JC Heaton, N Li
Journal of Political economy, 2008journals.uchicago.edu
We characterize and measure a long-term risk-return trade-off for the valuation of cash flows
exposed to fluctuations in macroeconomic growth. This trade-off features risk prices of cash
flows that are realized far into the future but continue to be reflected in asset values. We
apply this analysis to claims on aggregate cash flows and to cash flows from value and
growth portfolios by imputing values to the long-run dynamic responses of cash flows to
macroeconomic shocks. We explore the sensitivity of our results to features of the economic …
We characterize and measure a long‐term risk‐return trade‐off for the valuation of cash flows exposed to fluctuations in macroeconomic growth. This trade‐off features risk prices of cash flows that are realized far into the future but continue to be reflected in asset values. We apply this analysis to claims on aggregate cash flows and to cash flows from value and growth portfolios by imputing values to the long‐run dynamic responses of cash flows to macroeconomic shocks. We explore the sensitivity of our results to features of the economic valuation model and of the model cash flow dynamics.
The University of Chicago Press