Palestine after Arafat

Two generations ago, in the post-colonial turmoil of the Middle East, political succession struggles in the Arab world were frequent--and frequently violent. Syrian presidents in the 1950s and 1960s were almost as numerous as Italian prime ministers but usually met with more unpleasant fates than their Mediterranean counterparts. Conversely, the current round of succession in the Arab world sees the passing of men who dominated their countries for decades, not merely for months or years. Recently, monarchies in Morocco and Jordan have undergone relatively smooth successions for the two longest-ruling leaders in the Arab world. In Saudi Arabia, a de facto transition from the ailing King Fahd to Crown Prince Abdullah has likewise occurred without turmoil. Even in the "hereditary republic" of Syria, a succession scenario unimaginable ten years ago has--so far--gone reasonably smoothly. Taken together, Hassan, Hussein, Fahd, and Asad ruled for more than 135 years. Other long-serving Arab rulers are likewise nearing the end of their careers, including Husni Mubarak in Egypt (in power for two decades), Saddam Hussein in Iraq (formally in power for two decades, informally for three), and Yasir Arafat (the head of the Palestine Liberation Organization--PLO--for more than three decades). If anything, the contemporary Arab world has been marked by too much political stability at the top, not too little.

One of the most important successions to come will be to replace a leader for whom 2001 likely will be his first full year in office as president of the republic: Yasir Arafat in Palestine. To put things in perspective, Arafat is older now than both Asad and Hussein were at the time of their deaths and has not been in vigorous health in recent years. It is widely rumored that Arafat has Parkinson's disease, among other ailments. Arafat's significance as the Palestinian lynchpin in constructing peace with Israel makes his passing fraught with danger. Not only has he not groomed a successor (probably for fear of inviting a power struggle), unlike other Arab leaders, he has no son to anoint either. It is no wonder that some worried observers quote France's King Louis XIV's famous line when referring to Arafat's passing: "Après moi, le deluge."

Political violence is a likely characteristic of Palestinian politics in the years ahead, but it will not be particularly linked to the succession issue. Rather, violence would likely result from the hegemonic peace that Israel and Palestine consummate. Of course, if the two events happen simultaneously, then it would likely have an exacerbating effect.

In fact, succession per se in Palestine will likely go as smoothly as it has elsewhere in the Arab world recently. To be sure, conflicts and cleavages will continue to plague Palestinian politics, as one would expect during such fateful times for the Palestinian people. But the basic political economy that has been built under Arafat and the Palestinian Authority since the Oslo accord of 1993 will likely assure that Palestinian politics after Arafat look a great deal like Palestinian politics under Arafat. The challenge is not to gaze into a crystal ball and guess which individual or individuals will succeed Arafat. Rather, it is to identify the factors that will affect Palestinian succession, with the passing of Arafat.

Succession for What, Exactly?

As "Mr. Palestine," Arafat has dominated the Palestinian political scene for 30 years. During this time he has acquired many institutional hats. Currently, Arafat is (a) the chairman of the Executive Committee of the PLO; (b) the "Ra'is," or president, of the Palestinian Authority (PA), the current Palestinian government in the West Bank and Gaza; (c) the president of the Palestinian state that was declared in 1988 at the height of the Palestinian uprising, or Intifada; and (d) the head of the Central Committee of Fatah, the major political faction within the PLO. ¹

The chairmanship of the PLO remains an important position, even with the establishment of the PA in the West Bank...