Whither Southern Republicans?

ESSAY Whither Southern Republicans? By WhK Ayres and Jon McHenry f the truth be known, many southern Republicans are pinching themselves as the 1998 election approaches, amazed at and wondering about the extent of their success. Consider recent Republican accomplishments in the formerly Democratic "Solid South." Republicans hold eighty-two of the U.S. House seats in the thirteen-state South, up from forty-four in 1990. The Democrats retain only fifty-five seats. More than any other single factor, Republican success in these southern seats shifted national control of Congress from the Democrats to the Republicans. Republicans hold eighteen of the southern U.S. Senate seats, double the number in 1990, to only eight for the Democrats. Republicans also control nine governor seats, triple the number of just four years ago, to four for the Democrats. Republicans now control five ofthe twenty-six southern state legislative chambers : the state House of Representatives in South Carolina and North Carolina, the state Senate in Texas, both houses in Florida, as well as a tie in the Virginia State Senate. Moreover, Republicans could take control before the turn of the century in as many as nine more. The number ofRepublican congressmen in Georgia shot up from one to eight in only two elections— 1992 and 1994—and all eight were reelected in 1996. White Democratic congressmen, the political farm team for future statewide candidates, were totally wiped out. REPUBLICANS AND WHITE VOTERS Our firm conducted a large number of tracking surveys in three southern states (North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia) during the fall of 1996. The extent and pattern of Republican gains among white voters in those states were visible in the data (see Table 1 ). Republicans lead among white voters in all three states, with South Carolina !9 Table 1. 1996 Party ldentmcatlon for White Voter· by Selected Demographic Characteristics South Carolina 2307 Cases Margin of Error ± 2.08 Rep 53% Indep 21% Dem 26% %of Total IDEOLOGY Conservative Moderate Liberal AGE 18 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65 and older INCOME 60%171323 22 25 16 24 3652 Unopposed105 8 9 10 16 6 208 DEMOCRATIC SEATS 60%415329424240482829 Unopposed2321313030235 4 2 Source: Various editions of TheAlmanac ofAmerican Politics, and the The Cook PoliticalReport (28 April 1997). Arkansas and Tennessee—have grown increasingly Republican in gubernatorial and senatorial races. Republicans can reasonably expect to take back one or both of these states when the Democratic nominees are not native sons. Prospects are also strong for Republicans to solidify Florida and Georgia, each of which supported the Republican nominee once in the 1990s. That leaves only Louisiana as a solid Democratic state in the South at the presidential level. But Mike Foster's gubernatorial victory in 1995 and the near miss of Woody Jenkins in the 1996 Senate race show that even Louisiana's nine electoral votes, which Clinton won easily in 1996, could come back into the Republican column. High profile open-seat statewide races for governor and U.S. senator are likely to remain competitive in most southern states in the near future. All eight of the southern gubernatorial races up in 1998—Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas —involve seats last won with less than 5 5 percent of the vote. While Republicans still have opportunities for further gains, the number of victories in open seats is likely to swing back and forth between the parties, depending on idiosyncratic factors such as the quality of the candidates and the caliber ofthe campaigns. The reasons for a level playing field are readily apparent. The partisan shifts among white voters have not yet been sufficient in most states to overcome the overwhelming Democratic identification ofblack voters. Consequendy, the party bases stand at rough parity today in many southern states. On the other hand, generational replacement among whites, Republican inroads among blacks, and greater Republican bench strength among candidates could theoretically allow 24 WHIT AYRES AND JON MCHENRY Table 3. Lower House Membership after Election 1990 1992 1994 1996 1996 Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep % Rep al822382237431723231% AR909 88118812851515% FL744671496357596151% GA1453512851114651047442% KY683271296436643636% la891688168617762726% ms982391298931863328% NC813968425268596151% ok683370316536663535% sc794371525862546956% TN574263365940603939% Tx935791588961826845% va584152475247524747...