No Shortcut to Stability: Democratic Accountability and Sustainable Development in Ethiopia

The link between broad based economic prosperity, political stability and accountable governance is generally acknowledged as a reasonable proposition to explain the wealth and poverty of nations. Although there is continuing debate about what accountable governance actually imply and the degree to which government accountability is related to the democratic nature of the state, there is a broad consensus that political stability is an important precondition for durable development. Modern Ethiopian history is nothing but a story of economic decline, political instability and authoritarian governance. The TPLF/EPRDF regime that has taken power after overthrowing the hated Derge regime in Ethiopia has no democratic credentials especially since the 2005 election debacle. In the absence of democratic legitimacy, the government has hoped to ease public anger and frustration over the unfulfilled expectations of democracy and meaningful ethnic equality, by changing the discourse on governance from democratic accountability to the issue of economic growth. The regime's claim, which seems to be implicitly supported by Western donors, is that it is a "developmentalist state" that can deliver stable governance through its economic achievements rather than through democratic legitimacy. This paper looks at the government's claims carefully and shows that the economic growth figures used to support the government's claims are rather dubious. It also tries to show that even if the growth figures are true, the extent of poverty in the country is too high to generate durable political stability given the hostility the government created among key ethnic and social groups in the country. Furthermore, given the geo strategic location of the country in a very troubled region of the world, Ethiopia's instability is going to have a much broader implication for regional stability. Accordingly, the paper argues for refocusing the debate on democratic accountability in Ethiopia as a necessary condition for durable stability and sustainable development in the country and the larger region.