Empire, Military Power, and Economic Decline

Empire,Mlitary Power, and Economic Decline Book Review: The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers by Paul Kennedy New York: Random House, 1987. 677 pp. I Charles A. Kupchan 1 T h e Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, because of its bold and eloquent argument as well as the attention it has received, has left an indelible mark on the agenda of both politicians and scholars. Kennedy, with the help of others, has brought concern about America’s potential decline and the looming gap between resources and commitments to the forefront of the contemporary debate on U.S. foreign policy.2He has also set forth a rich research agenda that offers hope of wearing down unwieldy disciplinary barriers. In his effort to combine historical narrative with broad generalization about the dynamics that cause change in the international system, Kennedy departs from the military historian ’s traditional concerns with specific decisions and personalities. The scope of the book‘s inquiry and its comparative methodology reflect the increasing intermingling between historians and political scientist^.^ Kennedy ‘s focus on the links between economic and military power also builds important bridges between strategic studies and international political economy . The popularity of Kennedy’s volume is remarkable given its length and scholarly tone. Its tenure on the New York Times best-seller list clearly reflected The author would like to thank Jacques Bertrand, Olga Bokman, Stephan Haggard, John Ikenberry , Jon Kirshner, Klaus Knorr, Barry Nalebuff, Ken Oye, and Jack Snyder for their assistance and comments. Funding for the research was provided by the Pew Charitable Trusts Program on Integrating Economics and National Security. Charles A. Kupchan is an Assistant Professor of Politics at Princeton University. 1. Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 (New York: Random House, 1987). References to this book will be included parenthetically in the text hereafter. 2. Other books and articles that have received considerable public attention include David Calleo, Beyond American Hegemony (New York: Basic Books, 1987); Robert Gilpin, ”American Policy in the Post-Reagan Era,” Daedalus, Vol. 116, No. 3 (Summer 1987), pp. 33-67; Walter Russell Mead, Mortal Spleizdor (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1987); and Mancur Olson, The Rise and Decline of Nations (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1982). 3. For a discussion of potential avenues of cooperation between the two fields, see John Lewis Gaddis, ”Expanding the Data Base: Historians, Political Scientists, and the Enrichment of Security Studies,” International Security, Vol. 12, No. 1(Summer 1987),pp. 3-21. International Security, Spring 1989 (Vol. 13, No. 4) 01989 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 36 Empire, MilifaryPower, and Economic Decline I 37 growing anxiety about the loss of American predominance in the global arena. This theme has attracted a great deal of attention in academic circles for over a d e ~ a d e . ~ The enormous size of the budget deficit and the stock market crash of 1987, however, appear to have projected concern with U.S. decline into the wider public domain. The debate on how to revitalize the American economy that surrounded the presidential campaign no doubt enhanced public receptivity to Kennedy’s clarion. But this politically-driven preoccupation with American decline has also diverted attention from several important issues that lie at the core of Kennedy’s analysis. The purpose of this essay is not to summarize Kennedy’s book-that has been done extensively el~ewhere.~ Nor is it to challenge his central argument about the economic underpinnings of state strength, an argument that seems quite sensible, if not uncontestable. Rather, the essay will push Kennedy’s analysis one step beyond where it stands in the text by fleshing out two key issues that emerge from his important work. First, Kennedy posits that states precipitate their own economic decline by excessive spending on defense.6 This article will therefore examine the relationship between military expenditure and national economic performance, seeking to assess the extent to 4. See, for example, Robert Gilpin, U.S. Power and the Multinationd Corporation (New York: Basic Books, 1975); and Gilpin, War and Change in World...