Economía Colombiana del Siglo XX. Un análisis cuantitativo (review)

The title of the book, The Colombian Economy in the Twentieth Century: A Quantitative Analysis, is a very precise description of its contents. In an introduction and twelve chapters, James Robinson and Miguel Urrutia bring together nineteen Colombian experts to study, in Spanish, the evolution of the Colombian economy during the twentieth century. Harvard University political science professor James Robinson is the only non-Colombian author in this collection, although he has been doing research in Colombia since the 1990s.

With the exception of Chapters 11 and 12, the book relies heavily on the use of various extensive, detailed, and unique datasets. The main advantage of this approach is that for the first time, data starting in the early 1900s have been systematically analyzed by a group of experts in the field. The drawback is that with relative frequency, the same data are repeatedly used in various chapters and a different interpretation is discussed, leaving the reader with the task of examining and reconciling different points of view. For instance, when analyzing Colombia's trade policy, Leonardo Villar and Pilar Esquerra (Chapter 3) argue that "the prevailing protectionist policy in Colombia during most of the twentieth century was a consequence of the lack of a diversified export base" (p. 84). At the same time, Salomón Kalmanovitz and Enrique López (Chapter 4, pp. 132-6), in, arguably, the most complete chapter of the book and focusing on the agricultural sector, seem to find that the political economy is the essence that explains the high levels of protectionism in the economy.

The overlapping of topics across chapters can also be helpful for the readers as some chapters seem to complement other chapters' questions. For instance, in Villar and Esquerra's conclusion (Chapter 3), they discuss reasons why "there was no extra room for the use of the exchange rate as a mechanism to adjust the structural problems of the trade balance during the twentieth century" (p. 121). On the other hand, Fabio Sánchez, Andrés Fernández, and Armando Armenta (Chapter 7), evaluating trends and relevant shock on monetary policy, argue that the exchange rate regime evolved during the twentieth century from very rigid to less rigid regimes (p. 325). This, in part acknowledged by Villar and Esquerra, certainly calls for a more sophisticated analysis that helps disentangle causality issues.

The above two examples serve as perfect illustrations of the book's importance as a source for future research questions but, at the same time, shows its limitations. It very concisely describes various aspects of Colombia's economic policy, but it does not tackle specific research questions that arise. Considering the examples I mention above, how can one link political economy, trade policy, and the diversification of exports in Colombia? Or, how do the structural problems of the trade balance and the exchange rate regime relate?

When providing descriptive studies, some authors did an excellent job. Aside from Kalmanovitz and López (Chapter 4) mentioned above, I strongly recommend Roberto Junguito and Hernán Rincón's work on fiscal policy (Chapter 6) and Mauricio Avella's analysis on Colombia's external financing issues (Chapter 10). The combination of these three chapters will provide the reader with an excellent introduction to Colombia's main macroeconomic (and some sectoral) policy issues during the twentieth century. However, note that Avella's chapter, as complete as it is, lacks a conclusion, an important feature that would help the reader to organize the huge amount of information received in this chapter.

The volume also includes some specific and very interesting issues such as Villar and Esquerra's index on trade policy, Sánchez, Fernández, and Armenta's well-documented text on Colombian domestic and external shocks, and María Teresa Ramírez's replication of Robert Fogel's social savings exercise...