Lishi de guanxing: weilai shinian de Zhongguo yu shijie (Inertia of History: China and the World in the Next Ten Years) by Yan Xuetong (review)

How will the international community be shaped in the next ten years? What changes will we see in the global power structure? How will China change in this regard? Professor Yan Xuetong, a scholar of scientific forecasting in the area of international relations, shares his thoughts in his new work, Inertia of History: China and the World in the Next Ten Years. This five-chapter book gives a bold forecast on the trends of the “international regime” and provides analysis on China’s diplomatic strategy for the next decade.

Three chapters (Chapters 1, 3, and 4) are dedicated to the forecast of the power balance among China, the Unite States, once-influential nations, and developing countries up to 2023. It is predicted that China, although unable to surpass the United States on all fronts, will significantly narrow the gap of national comprehensive strength and likely join the upper echelon of global power, while the United States will see its status as a “super power” ebb. Meanwhile, the growth of once-influential powers like Russia, Japan, and the EU will remain sluggish; developing countries will be severely polarized; and the slack international multipolarization will give way to a new bipolar world with the United States and China as global leaders.

The change in the global power structure directly causes a shift of the world’s center of influence. Yan predicts in Chapter 2 that East Asia will become that center of influence, with a rising China fostering that transition. The fast development of China will make East Asia gradually become a focal area of competition for big powers. In ten years, the world’s center of influence will migrate from Europe to East Asia. However, this change will not sufficiently foster an overall change in the international system, which consists of three components: the “international regime” as a whole, the main players within the top tier of global power, and a set of acknowledged international norms. The international system will remain unchanged until critical shifts take place in at least two of these components. In the next ten years, the number of international organizations will increase significantly, but their influence will remain confined. Sovereign states are still main actors in the system; therefore, the change in international norms is a necessary occurrence needed to facilitate a reformation of the current international system. Only if China rises to provide the world with a new set of international norms may the current Yalta system change. In Yan’s view, the “humane authority thought” (王道思想 wangdao sixiang) will be the best guidance for a rising China to facilitate this change.

In the last chapter, Yan gives some suggestions on the diplomatic strategy of China in the next ten years. He believes that, by 2023, China will complete the shift of its diplomatic strategy from the orientation of a regional power to that of a global power. In such a context, the diplomatic strategy of China is suggested to be more of taking initiatives and embracing a position of leadership. First, China should place her foreign policy under the guidance of “moral realism” (道義現實主義 daoyi xianshizhuyi), advocate a widely accepted view of the world, construct under the pressure of the old system a new set of international norms that is fair, just, and culturally advanced, and increase the legitimacy of China’s international leadership. Second, China should adopt the statecraft of “humane authority thought” as the principle of diplomatic strategy and give up the principle of noninterference in internal affairs; China should no longer keep a low profile (韜光養晦 taoguang yanghui) and should move to shoulder more responsibilities of international security. Likewise, China should increase its accountability regarding international strategy, and lead the international community toward a fair and just international order. Third, China should revoke the nonalignment principle and establish a political...