Trust Our Resiliency

[ 12 ] asia policy “The reluctance of Asian governments to undertake international leadership, continuing wariness and suspicion among Asian powers, and general satisfaction with the role of the United States as security guarantor and economic partner suggest that a power transition from the prevailing order is unlikely soon.” • Trust Our Resiliency Robert Sutter Media commentators, academic specialists, and government experts frequently depict the situation in Asia as one of declining U.S. influence amid emerging Asian integration and cooperation, with rising China as a new center of power. Despite contrary arguments by Bush administration officials and others, the U.S. position in Asia is widely seen to have deteriorated and to require strong remedial actions by the new administration. However, a closer look at the strengths and weaknesses of the United States in Asia and at prevailing dynamics in the region suggests that the United States remains relatively well-positioned in pursuing the interests of military balance and stability, economic development, and the promotion of U.S. values. The 2008 global economic crisis raises a lot of uncertainty and speculation but thus far shows little sign of substantially diminishing the influence of the United States when compared to other regional powers and organizations that also are affected by the crisis. U.S. leadership remains strong in Asian affairs. Whatever changes in the U.S. approach seem warranted should be carried out methodically, without urgency driven by alleged U.S. “decline.” A major reason for the continued resiliency of U.S. power and influence in Asia has to do with Asia’s lagging leadership. On the one hand, predictions of the 21st century as an Asian century—led by burgeoning Asian economic, political, and military powers—appear on course: the wealth and power of rising states such as China and India is growing, backed by the already well-developed economies of Japan, South Korea, and others that used to be called newly industrialized countries. On the other hand, despite a great deal of discussion, Asian nations that have asserted leadership in managing robert sutter is Visiting Professor of Asian Studies in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C. He can be reached at . [ 13 ] special roundtable • advising the new u.s. president regional affairs (through numerous regional and subregional groups as well as other means) remain weak and have not seriously diminished the leadership role played by the United States in Asia. Although many factors account both for this apparent “leadership deficit” in Asia and for the continued reliance of Asian nations on the United States, recent regional dynamics show three salient determinants. First, governments matter in Asia: government officials tend to make the key decisions on whether or not to diverge from the United States and assert greater leadership in regional and world affairs. These officials are influenced by many forces, including the sometimes lofty ambitions of elite or popular opinion urging moves away from existing power arrangements in favor of new arrangements that would increase the profile of their respective country and reduce U.S. influence. However, Asian officials generally remain focused on two pragmatic quests. The first quest is effective nation-building; the second is preserving the narrow national interests. Both provide the foundation for the legitimacy of Asian governments at home and abroad. These quests are complicated by forces of globalization and an uncertain security environment in Asia characterized by widespread wariness among Asian states. They also are complicated by numerous internal problems that have led to periodic political gridlock and governance crises among many of Asia’s leading states. Against this background, Asian government leaders have remained focused on fostering the development and national interests of their countries and generally have eschewed major commitments to managing Asian and world affairs that would involve significant costs and risks to national development and interests. Even rising China, seen as Asia’s leading power, continues to carefully avoid unwanted risks, costs, and commitments, notably through its “win-win” diplomacy. This foreign policy approach allows China to cooperate with other countries on already existing common ground. With a few exceptions, China does not require other nations to do things they would not ordinarily do, and China...