Build on Past Successes, Tackle Long-Term Challenges

[ 15 ] special roundtable • advising the new u.s. president “The overwhelming advantage in military power that has long underwritten U.S. commitments in East Asia is fast disappearing. If Washington does not begin to respond more vigorously than it has to date, the United States may find its alliances frayed and its options in any future crisis dangerously constricted.” • Build on Past Successes, Tackle Long-Term Challenges Aaron L. Friedberg Despite accusations that it ignored the region in order to focus on the Middle East and terrorism, the Bush administration actually devoted substantial attention to Asia, achieving some notable results. Relations with China are at a high point. The United States has bolstered its alliance with Japan and embarked on a new era of strategic cooperation with India. After several years of tension, relations with South Korea appear to be back on track. Both the nuclear stand-off with North Korea and the delicate situation in the Taiwan Strait look less prone to explode than they did only a few years ago. While it inherits a region, and a policy, in reasonably good order, the new administration will have to work hard to prevent its predecessor’s achievements in Asia from unraveling. The new president will also have to address some difficult long-term issues that have not yet been fully faced. Continued Sino-U.S. amity is by no means assured. In the near term the greatest threats to good relations will be economic rather than strategic. A protracted global recession may lead to heightened protectionist pressure from Congress. If the new president fails to resist, simmering trade tensions between the two Pacific powers could easily boil over. Despite the recent reduction in open hostility, the China-Taiwan issue is also far from settled. Taiwan’s newly elected president has shown a willingness to talk with China, but given the divisions among his own people he is unlikely to be able to make the concessions the mainland desires. If China’s leaders anticipate an early diplomatic breakthrough, they are destined for disappointment. Assuming that the new U.S. administration follows through on the long-standing commitment to supply Taiwan with aaron l. friedberg is Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University and Chairman of the Board of Counselors of the Pyle Center on Northeast Asia at NBR. He can be reached at . [ 16 ] asia policy defensive arms, there will inevitably be new frictions between Washington and Beijing. The U.S. alliances with Japan and South Korea will also require careful tending. After a period of reform and progress, Japan seems to have lapsed again into a cycle of weakness and stagnation. To make matters worse, there is growing concern in Tokyo that the United States may be starting to “lean” toward China, backing away from an emphasis on common democratic values just as Japan is beginning to embrace them as the centerpiece of its own diplomacy. Should the new president and the newly-elected Congress refuse to finalize a free-trade agreement with South Korea, they risk undoing much of the progress that has been made in recent years toward building a sturdier U.S.-ROK alliance. Moreover, if the current “kinder, gentler” approach to North Korea fails to yield satisfactory results, Seoul and Washington could once again be at odds over what to do next. In its closing days the Bush administration finally succeeded in winning congressional approval for a deal that permits nuclear cooperation with India. With this obstacle out of the way, the new administration will be able to move forward in developing a broad strategic partnership. But it will also have to negotiate potentially serious differences over how to deal with Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran. Looming over all these more immediate issues is the biggest strategic challenge the new president will face in Asia and, arguably, the wider world: figuring out how to deal with an increasingly wealthy, powerful, ambitious, and assertive China. The new administration will inherit a China policy that seeks to blend elements of economic and diplomatic engagement with ongoing efforts to preserve a favorable balance of power in Asia. The aim of current strategy is to integrate China into...