China in the Year 2020: Three Political Scenarios

Cheng Li is Senior Fellow at the John L. Thornton China Center of the Brookings Institution and William R. Kenan Professor of Government at Hamilton College. He is the author of Rediscovering China: Dynamics and Dilemmas of Reform (1997) and China’s Leaders: The New Generation (2001) as well as editor of Bridging Minds Across the Pacific: The SinoU .S. Educational Exchange 1978–2003 (2005). He can be reached at . Note u This essay is a revised version of a paper that was presented at an NBR conference titled “China 2020: Future Scenarios,” Airlie Center, VA, February 15–17, 2007. China in the Year 2020: Three Political Scenarios Cheng Li asia policy, number 4 (july 2007), 17–29 • http://asiapolicy.nbr.org • executive summary asia policy Progressing toward the year 2020, China’s political structure is unlikely to develop along a direct, linear trajectory. Just as China’s rapid economic development and global integration shocked the world over the past two decades, so too might the country’s future political course defy projected expectations. Three possible scenarios for 2020 are presented in this essay. Which road China ultimately takes will depend on the interplay of current political trends, key players in decisionmaking roles, and demographic factors that will be important in the future. possible scenarios • The emergence of a democratic China u A wealthier and better-educated middle class, a stronger currency, and a more robust civil society, among other phenomena, lead to greater cultural and political pluralism. • Prolonged chaos u Economic disparities among urban and rural populations, rampant corruption among the elite, health crises, and environmental degradation trigger intense socio-political and economic crises that undermine the stability of the Communist regime. • A resilient, authoritarian China u Problems among the world’s democratic countries make democracy less appealing to the Chinese people, while stable development strategies by the party-state are necessary for growth and economic stability, further entrenching the ruling power of the CCP. [ 19 ] li • china in the year 2020 In May 1990, when the former Soviet Union was undergoing fundamental changes, Walter Laqueur, a scholar of Russian politics, was hesitant to make political predictions concerning the Soviet Union: “Political predictions are easiest to make when they are least needed—when the political barometer points to continuity. They become more difficult at a time of rapid and violent change.” Laqueur’s insightful remarks about the Soviet Union are equally true for any analysis of China’s present and possible future. During the first three decades of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), no other future seemed possible except the perpetuation of the status quo. Observers did not have the slightest doubt about the continuation of socialist planning in China’s economy and Communist rule in the political life of the country. Today, however, there are a variety of possibilities regarding this rapidly changing country. China’s economic rise during the last three decades has been a fascinating development—and a big surprise—in world affairs. China, a country previously known for its economic backwardness and international isolation, has been transformed into the world’s foremost frontier of economic globalization. Will China give the world another big surprise in the political realm in the years to come? AnunderstandingofvariouspossiblefuturepoliticalscenariosforthePRC in the medium term is critically important for the international community— especially the United States, as such knowledge will help decisionmakers in Washington to formulate better policy options. If Washington’s vision is narrow, U.S. options will be inadequate; if Washington’s views are distorted, so too will be U.S. policies. This paper presents three possible political scenarios for China in 2020. The scenarios range from the most optimistic, in which the country will become a stable constitutional democracy, to the most pessimistic, in which China will collapse and be left in a state of prolonged civil war, domestic chaos, and massive human exodus. Somewhere in the middle is perhaps the most commonly perceived forecast: with its combination of a market economy and an authoritarian political system, China will largely remain the same in the medium term as it is today—although this combination will be far more institutionalized than at present. There are four clarifications to...