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About Strategic Asia The Strategic Asia Program at The National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) is a major ongoing research initiative that draws together top Asia studies specialists and international relations experts to assess the changing strategic environment in the Asia-Pacific. The program transcends traditional estimates of military balance by incorporating economic, political, and demographic data and by focusing on the strategies and perceptions that drive policy in the region. The program’s integrated set of products and activities includes: • an annual edited volume written by leading specialists • an executive brief tailored for public- and private-sector decisionmakers and strategic planners • briefings and presentations for government, business, and academe that are designed to foster in-depth discussions revolving around major public-policy issues Special briefings are held for key committees of Congress and the executive branch, other government agencies, and the intelligence community. The principal audiences for the program’s research findings are the U.S. policymaking and research communities, the media, the business community, and academe. To order a book, please visit the Strategic Asia website at http://www. Previous Strategic Asia Volumes Over the past thirteen years this series has addressed how Asia is increasingly functioning as a zone of strategic interaction and contending with an uncertain balance of power. Strategic Asia 2001–02: Power and Purpose established a baseline assessment for understanding the strategies and interactions of the major states within the region. 326 • Strategic Asia 2013–14 Strategic Asia 2002–03: Asian Aftershocks drew upon this baseline to analyze changes in these states’ grand strategies and relationships in the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks. Strategic Asia 2003–04: Fragility and Crisis examined the fragile balance of power in Asia, drawing out the key domestic political and economic trends in Asian states supporting or undermining this tenuous equilibrium. Strategic Asia 2004–05: Confronting Terrorism in the Pursuit of Power explored the effect of the U.S.-led war on terrorism on the strategic transformations underway in Asia. Strategic Asia 2005–06: Military Modernization in an Era of Uncertainty appraised the progress of Asian military modernization programs. Strategic Asia 2006–07: Trade, Interdependence, and Security addressed how changing trade relationships affect the balance of power and security in the region. Strategic Asia 2007–08: Domestic Political Change and Grand Strategy examined internal and external drivers of grand strategy on Asian foreign policymaking. Strategic Asia 2008–09: Challenges and Choices examined the impact of geopolitical developments on Asia’s transformation over the previous eight years and assessed the major strategic choices on Asia facing the new U.S. president. Strategic Asia 2009–10: Economic Meltdown and Geopolitical Stability analyzed the impact of the global economic crisis on key Asian states and explored the strategic implications for the United States. Strategic Asia 2010–11: Asia’s Rising Power and America’s Continued Purpose provided a continent-wide net assessment of the core trends and issues affecting the region by examining Asia’s performance in nine key functional areas. Strategic Asia 2011–12: Asia Responds to Its Rising Powers—China and India explored how key Asian states and regions have responded to the rise of China and India, drawing implications for U.S. interests and leadership in the Asia-Pacific. Strategic Asia 2012–13: China’s Military Challenge assessed China’s growing military capabilities and explored their impact on the Asia-Pacific region. About Strategic Asia • 327 Research and Management Team The Strategic Asia research team consists of leading international relations and security specialists from universities and research institutions across the United States and around the world. A new research team is selected each year. The research team for 2013 is led by Ashley J. Tellis (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace). Aaron Friedberg (Princeton University, and Strategic Asia’s founding research director) and Richard Ellings (The National Bureau of Asian Research, and Strategic Asia’s founding program director) continue to serve as senior advisers. The Strategic Asia Program has historically depended on a diverse base of funding from foundations, government, and corporations, supplemented by income from publication sales. Major support for the program in 2013 comes from the Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation. In addition, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation provided support for several chapters in this year’s volume. Attribution Readers of Strategic Asia and visitors to the Strategic Asia website may use data, charts, graphs, and quotes from these sources without requesting permission from NBR on the condition that they...


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