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iii FOREWORD C hina has emerged as the world’s single largest energy consumer, and the country’s phenomenal economic growth has increased global demand across the spectrum of fuel choices, particularly coal, oil, gas, and nuclear power. Surging demand has not only dramatically reshaped world energy markets but also raised new and more complex questions for stakeholders concerned with developments in China’s domestic energy infrastructure, environmental policy, and global energy diplomacy. China is struggling to reshape its domestic economy to address energy and environmental concerns. Two critical parts of this effort are decreasing the economic role of heavy, energy-intensive industries and reducing the enormous fossil-fuel requirements currently necessary for sustaining economic growth. With these issues in mind, the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) held its tenth annual Energy Security Workshop—“China’s Energy Crossroads”— in Washington, D.C., on June 5, 2014. Building on NBR’s long-standing program to bring together policymakers, industry leaders, and specialists on energy security, the annual workshop convenes senior stakeholders for high-level discussions on developments in Asian energy markets and the implications for geopolitics. Over the course of the year, the arguments presented are then tested and explored through further dialogue with leading experts in both the United States and Asia. As a culmination of these efforts, this final report presents the program’s findings and highlights how stakeholders on both sides of the Pacific can strengthen their cooperation on a common goal of promoting energy security in the Asia-Pacific. In this NBR Special Report, four senior energy and geopolitical specialists examine major shifts underway in China’s energy security strategies and assess how the country is affecting market, geopolitical, and environmental outlooks for the Asia-Pacific more broadly. The first two essays explore a range of issues that are more traditionally associated with energy security in China: Philip Andrews-Speed examines the dynamics of China’s energy policymaking, while Mikkal E. Herberg details the country’s expanding impact on global oil and gas markets. The second half of the report then explores the increasingly important question of how environmental security factors into energy security discussions. In the third essay, Li Zhidong discusses the prospects for peak coal demand in China, the policies and strategies in place for making peak demand a reality, and continuing uncertainties in the country’s energy and environmental outlook. Next, Benjamin A. Shobert explains why China’s environmental concerns are growing in importance as a driver of the country’s public policy and considers the impact of Beijing’s approaches to environmental challenges on governments and citizens across the Asia-Pacific. Finally, a conclusion by Mikkal E. Herberg offers overarching insights into China’s efforts to achieve a balance between energy and environmental security. Overall, the four essays in this report paint a picture of an increasingly complex energy landscape within China. As several authors so aptly highlight, while only a few years ago China was focused on the challenge of securing energy supplies to promote economic growth, today it also faces the much more nuanced challenge of sustaining growth while addressing the country’s very real—and very pressing—environmental concerns. At the same time, China’s growing energy diplomacy and presence in markets ranging from Central Asia to the Middle East and Africa to North America confirm its emergence as an energy superpower, and Beijing now faces questions iv NBR SPECIAL REPORT u NOVEMBER 2014 about its potential for leadership in the global arena. As a result, how China pursues its energy security goals has significant implications not only for Chinese citizens but for the environmental, economic, and geostrategic outlooks of Asia and the rest of the world. There are a number of individuals and groups deserving of both our recognition of their invaluable contributions and our deep thanks for making this program possible. First and foremost, we are grateful for the generous support of our sponsors—the Asian Development Bank, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, and the Henry M. Jackson Foundation—whose contributions enable us to examine the central energy-security challenges facing the United States and the Asia-Pacific today. We are also appreciative of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars for cohosting this program’s June workshop and to the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center for cosponsoring that event. Finally, we are grateful to the dozens of leading scholars and practitioners who informed and sharpened this year’s research by sharing their time and insights. We...


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