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CHAPTER ONE. TANZANIA IN TRANSITION – TO WHAT?
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CHAPTER ONE TANZANIA IN TRANSITION – TO WHAT? Kjell Havnevik and Aida C. Isinika1 Background During recent years Tanzania has been held up as a champion of structural reforms from whom other countries should learn. This is being reflected in relatively high growth rates and stabilization of macro-economic parameters . The praise comes from various stakeholders such as the World Bank and IMF, donors and numerous consultants, domestic and international, who have assisted the process. Key elements that have emerged as critical for the reforms, seen as absent in most countries in the region, include; a stable political regime since 1995, high-level support for structural reforms and continuously good macroeconomic management promoted by a strong finance ministry.2 These outcomes differ, it is claimed, from the phase of economic reform that coincided with the last stage of one-party rule from 1985 to 1995. In this period fiscal discipline was weak and many government institutions and their representatives were exposed for lack of efficiency, for not taking responsibility and for corruption. In general there was disappointment with what the government had achieved and a considerable degree of “aid-fatigue” emerged, including withdrawal of assistance by some donors. By the early 1990s relations between the Tanzanian government and donors had deteriorated to such a low level that an independent group of experts was commissioned to look into the matter.3 Economic reforms during the period were not translated into change in economic structures that could underpin economic growth and reduce the high incidence of poverty in particular in the rural areas. Hence the praise of recentTanzanian development implies that the positive shift in the economic and broader development trajectory emerged with the presidency of Benjamin Mkapa from 1995. This, it is argued, is the 1 Kjell Havnevik is senior researcher at the Nordic Africa Institute, Uppsala and adjunct professor at the University of Agder, Norway. Aida C. Isinika is professor at Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro, Tanzania, presently on leave to work with Oxfam, Tanzania. 2 Lawson, A. et al, ”Does General Budget Support Work? Evidence from Tanzania”. ODI, London, 2005. 3 Helleiner, G. K., T. Killick, N. Lipumba, B. J. Ndulu and K. Svendsen, Report of the Group of Independent Advisors on Development Co-operation Issues between Tanzania and Its Donors. Copenhagen: Royal Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. 2 Chapter One period that should be evaluated and assessed in a forward looking analysis of Tanzanian development and not so much what happened in the early post-colonial period and during the presidency of Mwinyi (1985-1995). In order to distance his government from the former, Mkapa, immediately upon his appointment established a presidential commission of which Joseph Warioba, a former Prime Minister was chairman, to address the corruption issue.4 However, most assessments of recent Tanzanian developments tend to be biased or focused on parts of the whole, for instance either on economic reforms or parts of it, or on democratic system change or on more narrow aspects of governance issues including corruption and development cooperation . The tendency has also been to focus on the post-1995 period, but even more so on the post year 2000 developments when growth figures and macro-economic parameters have improved markedly. However, such an approach tends to overlook the fact that the problem is not that poor African countries are unable to grow, “but that their growth spurts eventually fizzle out”.5 Hence economic growth and its contribution to long-term development should rather be analysed in a longer term perspective and in a broader context.6 Contribution of The Book This book is a contribution to understanding the trajectory of Tanzanian development in a broader perspective by marrying the analysis of historical developments with insights from more recent transitions and in particular those related to the years of Benjamin Mkapa’s two presidential periods from 1995 to 2005. Another important objective is to understand the character of the development outcomes emerging from transitions, whether they have a transformational character or not. This period is important also because it represents the first phase of the Tanzanian multiparty system. The contributions come primarily from Tanzanian, Nordic 4 The Presidential Commission Against Corruption, 1996, “The Report of the Presidential Commission of Inquiry Against Corruption.” (“The Warioba Commission” was formed by then president Benjamin Mkapa on the 17th of January 1996 as a way of fulfilling his election pledge to fight corruption in the country. The Commission was chaired by former prime minister Joseph Warioba). December...