Geography and the Environment in Southeast Asia: Proceedings of the Geology Jubilee Symposium, The University of Hong Kong, 21-25 June 1976

23. Contemporary Features of the Population of Hong Kong

XXIII CONTEMPORARY FEATURES OF mE POPULATION OFHONGKONG S.F. Richards This paper presents some preliminary consideration of changes in Hong Kong's population over the last ten years. In addition to the Population census of 1971 the principal source of information has been the Monthly digest 01statistics. GROWTH AND THE 'DEMOGRAPHIC TRANsmON' The estimated mid-year population in 1965 was 3,597,900, which grew by 21.37 per cent in the ten years to 1975 to reach 4,366,600. This re. presents an average annual growth rate very close to two per cent, although the Census and Statistics Department reports a considerable fluctua.tion in the annual rate. The highest reported growth rate was 2.8 per cent for 19741975 ,the last year of the decade. These fluctuations have been superimposed on Figure 23. 1,to illustrate the demographic transition. This figure reveals the dramatic fa1l個 the birth rate from around 35 per thousand in 1961 to 20 per thousand in 1970,while the death rate varied little. This suggested that Hong Kong was in the fmal stages of the transition towards low growth rates and a stable pop叫“ion ， but the fa1l did not continue into the early 1970s. The birth rate stayed close to 20 per thousand until it registered a slight dip in 1975. However,the demographic transition 血eory expects the stablization process at the end of the transition to occur when birth rates reach 12 to 14 per thousand, just above expected death rates of around 12 per thousand. Thus instead of fmding rates of natural increase at around two per thousand, Hong Kong's natural increase is st也 c10se to 15 per thousand. The trend of the infant mortality rate has also been shown on the figure, but its behaviour does not differ significantly from the other curves. Hong Kong has already reached a high standard 扭曲is field, even when compared with developed countries, but the rate of natural S.F. RICHARDS increase is not significantly affected by the decline in the infant mortaIity rate. Clearly the behaviour pattern of the population in respect of births needs careful consideration if the pattern of future growth is to be understood . 354 H C @ U 』 飢 w a } 飢 W H 伺 E 、iFR 、 、、。令、 \\,BR \ \ \ \ \ \ 、、\ ，.---..-、\ \\、 ~、、 文------、 t3 G 向. G,owth Rate 8 月. Borth Rate O~ = Oeath Rate N1 Natu,al Inc,ease Rate 1~1R.. Infant Mo,tal,tv Rate 主且ß!! Monthly D.gest 0' SlallsllCS .。 30 4 . a 。 @ a à20 2 皂 z-EEO 一 旬3 c c d '‘ / / J ... f / / / ‘ 、 、 、 、 ‘ 、 、 1 、 \ 、 、 h ', , r ', J \ \ \ \ \ AH f l '', / ',' ,', I I a n z t ‘ ‘ 、 G ‘ 、 ‘ 1 .‘‘. '。 @ F 伺 缸 4 o '"' O 75 74 73 72 71 70 119 118 117 1111 115 '‘ 113 112 Figure 23. 1: The demographic transition in Hong Kong Migration is the third component of population growth. In-migration from China has played an important historical role in the development of POPULATION OF HONG KONG 355 Hong Kong. About 10 1 ，∞o legal migrant8 were admitted during the period 1961 一 1971 ， nearly 37 ，∞o of whom were admitted during the first two years. A1though the total number of Chinese admitted legally in 1970一71 had fallen to under 3 ，∞0， the figure rose sharply again in 1972 so that a further 132 ，∞o were apparently admitted between 1972 and 1975. It was 叫80 reported in the Far Eastem Economic Review (11 June, 1976, 38) that the annual rate has now steadied at 17,500. Until very recently, however, i1Iegal immigration has always been running at a higher rate. The Census and Statistics Department reported an average annual intake of 10,400 for the period 1963-1970, but this seems to be based only on those actually discovered . The F.E.E.R. article referred to above reports a declining annual intake of i1Iegal immigrants, down to 1 ，0∞個 1975 ， but believes this to represent only 20 per cent of all arrivals. This would give a combined total of Chine鈴加migrants of about 駒，000 in 1973 and 60，∞o in 1974, but only 31,000 in 1975. Such numbers of immigrants are very significant when compared to the annual number of births and deaths. Out-migration is a further complicating issue. No definite figures are available, but it has been calculated that between 1964 and 1971 there was a net annualloss of 10 ，∞o people to other countries and a gross annual loss of nearly 5,000...