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Part Four PLANNING FOR A MORE CERTAIN FUTURE, 1985-1997 COMMENTARY Background In th e earl y an d mid-1980s , the continuin g an d increasin g declin e i n th e annua l growth rat e o f th e population 1 an d th e chang e i n th e age-distributio n o f th e population2 facilitate d longe r ter m plannin g fo r educatio n a s wel l a s th e achievement of the targets identified i n earlier plans. The reduction of pressure over quantitative provision also enabled some officials t o pay greater attention to issues involving qualit y i n education. Pressur e group s an d publi c opinio n withi n Hon g Kong encouraged thi s change in focus, while international trends, especially thos e emanating from the United States and the United Kingdom, favoured school-base d initiatives. At the same time, uncertainty abou t the future o f Hong Kong was reduced b y the Join t Declaratio n signe d b y th e Prim e Minister s o f th e People' s Republi c o f China an d th e United Kingdo m o n 1 9 December 1984 . An earlie r announcemen t by th e Governo r o f Hon g Kon g tha t continuit y woul d b e maintaine d i n th e application o f Hon g Kong' s ow n presen t educationa l standards , i n th e us e o f materials from abroad , and i n the operation of the Hong Kong educational syste m separately an d differentl y fro m th e system(s ) i n othe r part s o f China , seeme d designed t o disar m misgiving s an d t o encourag e plannin g fo r a les s uncertai n future.3 Thi s was th e firs t tim e i n the modern histor y o f Hong Kon g tha t policy making was no t dogge d b y doubts an d anxietie s about th e future o f Hong Kong . This fac t i n itsel f wa s likel y t o have impac t o n both th e proces s an d th e produc t of educatio n polic y making . As note d i n Part 3 , above, the capacit y fo r plannin g ha d als o been increase d by th e establishmen t o f a separat e Educatio n Branc h withi n th e Governmen t Secretariat i n 1981 , even thoug h th e Llewelly n Report , whic h ha d bee n release d 1. E.g. , it was 3.9% in 1979-80 but dropped to 1.3% in 1984-1985 largely as a result of the revision o f immigration polic y at the end o f 1980 and 1982. 2. E.g. , in 1976 31.6% of the population was under 15, whereas in 1985, the figure was below 23.2% 3. Fo r the text of this announcement, which was originally published i n September 1984, see Hong Kong 1985 , paras. 36-37, p. 27, and Evidence 2 (c) in Part 3, above. 366 EDUCATION IN HONG KONG, 1941 TO 2001 to the public in 1983, claimed that education in Hong Kong had, to date, been "over administered i n terms of minute bureaucratic surveillance of regulations yet under planned i n term s o f strategi c goal s an d th e know-ho w t o achiev e them". 4 It was certainly true that some aspects of the newly overt "1997 Factor" tende d to make planning more difficult. Toward s the end o f 1987, for instance , there wa s sustained publi c discussion , largel y anxious , about th e educationa l connotation s of the so-called "brai n drain" which was beginning to affect Hong Kong as growin g numbers o f th e well-educate d sough t t o obtai n foreig n passport s a s a for m o f insurance against the possible effects of the Chinese resumption of sovereignty ove r Hong Kong . Th e outflo w o f well-qualified , ofte n relativel y youn g peopl e fro m Hong Kong , includin g increasin g number s o...

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