By Design or Accident: Reflections on Asian Security

23. Resoluteness Alone Will Not Solve Bush’s Security Woes

23 Resoluteness Alone Will Not Solve Bush’s Security Woes In Asia several governments have been pleased with the re-election of Bush as US President, in part because he is expected to be resolute on security issues. But resoluteness, while necessary, may not by itself be sufficient to make progress in Iraq and the war on terrorism. There was ample resoluteness during the first Bush term, yet the international security situation has worsened in some important respects in the past two years. If the sorts of policy flaws witnessed over the past few years are repeated during the second term, the world could be a more dangerous place four years from now when Bush leaves office. Iraq is turning out to be a major strategic setback, largely as a result of errors of judgment made by the Bush team about the post-invasion occupation and administration of the country. It has become an epicenter of terrorism, threatening the stability of the surrounding region, from where the world gets most of its oil, and America’s power and prestige in the world. Anti-Americanism has grown in the Muslim world, in part because of the perceived pro-Israel bias of the Administration which has complicated the fight against 96 By Design or Accident terrorism.America’s alliances with key European states and its soft power have been damaged. Even if the charge of unilateralism leveled by critics against thisAdministration is exaggerated, a deep impression has been created in significant parts of the world that the Administration is dismissive of the views of others on important international issues and determined to go its own way. In world affairs perceptions are an important reality with important consequences especially when they are about the sole superpower whose policies affect so many other countries. TheAdministration’s fiscal policies have been described by reputable economists as irresponsible. An impressive budget surplus inherited from the Clinton Administration has been turned into a huge deficit. If this trend continues, the resulting damage will not just be economic, both to America and the world, but also strategic. The world needs a strong America to fight the war against terrorism and to maintain the strategic balance; America cannot be strong if its finances are in shambles. The disturbing feature about the first BushAdministration has been the primacy of ideology over pragmatic common sense in the conduct of policy in certain key areas. Some observers have argued that the lessons from past errors have been learned and that the second Bush term would be characterised by realism in the tradition of most other Republican presidencies after World War Two, including that of the elder Bush. But there is no assurance yet that this will be the case. It is not clear if some of the influential figures of the current Administration have been willing to learn from past Bush’s Security Woes 97 mistakes. There has been precious little accountability for failures in Iraq from an Administration that preaches to others the transformative powers of democracy. And the principal ideological support base of the Administration continues to be the pro-Israel Christian right and the neo-conservatives, making it difficult to reach out to the Muslim world. During his second term Bush needs to move to a more centrist position to rally all Americans behind him and to put effort and energy into consulting and repairingAmerica’s image abroad. The fiasco in Iraq makes this all the more necessary. Condoleezza Rice’s appointment as Secretary of State could hold promise because she would have the ear and the confidence of the President in a way that Powell probably did not. Hopefully the realist and internationalist part of her will not always succumb to ideology and she will be able to tell the President the way things really are rather than the way he wants to see them. No country, however rich and powerful, can squander its wealth and energy by taking on too many burdens simultaneously, especially when this is done without enough international cooperation and support. The dictum attributed to Clausewitz that war is just diplomacy by other means should be taken to heart. Many a time it may be possible to achieve one’s goals by means other than the direct use of military force on a large scale. In the war against terrorism, the political and psychological dimensions are crucially important. Resoluteness does not always...