Regional Economic Development in China

14. Regions with Net Outward Migration: Issues and Challenges

Regions฀with฀Net฀Outward฀Migration฀ 295 14 Regions with Net Outward Migration: Issues and Challenges Lu Ding INTRODUCTION For฀three฀decades,฀China฀has฀sustained฀hyper฀economic฀growth฀above฀9฀per฀ cent฀per฀annum.฀With฀this฀rate฀of฀growth,฀total฀income฀is฀doubled฀every฀ eight฀years฀in฀a฀nation฀that฀accounts฀for฀one-fifth฀of฀the฀global฀population.฀ Hundreds฀ of฀ millions฀ of฀ people฀ have฀ been฀ lifted฀ out฀ of฀ poverty.฀ Wealth฀ creation฀ at฀ such฀ a฀ scale฀ and฀ speed฀ has฀ never฀ occurred฀ elsewhere฀ in฀ the฀ world’s฀history.฀ A฀disturbing฀feature฀of฀China’s฀hyper฀economic฀growth,฀however,฀has฀ been฀ its฀ uneven฀ occurrence฀ across฀ the฀ country’s฀ vast฀ regions.฀ It฀ is฀ well฀ observed฀ that฀ income฀ disparity฀ between฀ the฀ rich฀ coastal฀ regions฀ and฀ the฀ poor฀inland฀regions฀has฀been฀widened฀over฀the฀past฀decades.฀Fast฀economic฀ growth฀has฀so฀far฀failed฀to฀lead฀to฀convergence฀of฀per฀capita฀income฀among฀ different฀areas฀in฀China.฀ There฀has฀emerged฀a฀rich฀literature฀about฀the฀causes฀of฀China’s฀regional฀ income-development฀disparity฀since฀the฀mid-1990s.฀Most฀studies฀attempt฀ 14฀RegEDC.indd฀฀฀295 7/29/09฀฀฀9:51:55฀AM 296฀ Lu฀Ding to฀ associate฀ such฀ disparity฀ with฀ variances฀ in฀ public฀ policies,฀ geographic฀ conditions,฀economic฀openness,฀quality฀of฀governance,฀advance฀of฀marketoriented ฀reforms,฀or฀other฀institutional฀factors.฀ The฀focus฀of฀this฀chapter฀is฀on฀the฀link฀between฀demographic฀structures฀ and฀levels฀of฀per฀capita฀incomes.฀In฀particular,฀it฀inquires฀into฀the฀impact฀of฀ labour฀migration฀on฀income฀growth฀via฀changes฀of฀demographic฀structures.฀ What฀motivates฀this฀research฀is฀the฀observation฀of฀a฀salient฀fact:฀the฀poor,฀ inland฀ regions฀ have฀ been฀ the฀ major฀ sources฀ of฀ fast฀ growing฀ “floating฀ population”฀ of฀ lower-paid฀ migrant฀ workers.฀ With฀ massive฀ net฀ outward฀ migrations,฀the฀demographic฀structures฀in฀those฀provincial฀economies฀have฀ increasingly฀become฀unfavourable฀for฀growth.฀This฀raises฀a฀serious฀concern฀ about฀the฀chance฀for฀these฀regions฀to฀catch฀up฀with฀the฀rich฀ones.฀ The฀next฀section฀brings฀out฀some฀observations฀of฀the฀migration฀patterns฀ across฀Chinese฀provincial฀economies.฀The฀following฀two฀sections฀then฀look฀ into฀the฀social-economic฀consequences฀of฀labour฀migration฀in฀the฀context฀of฀ uneven฀demographic฀transitions฀across฀China.฀In฀particular,฀the฀development฀ problems฀ of฀ the฀ regions฀ with฀ net฀ outward฀ migration฀ are฀ examined.฀That฀ inquiry฀ leads฀ us฀ to฀ the฀ discussion฀ of฀ policy฀ options฀ for฀ those฀ regions฀ to฀ deal฀with฀the฀problems,฀in฀the฀last฀section.฀ MIGRATION฀PATTERNS฀ACROSS฀CHINA China’s฀ inter-regional฀ labour฀ mobility฀ has฀ drastically฀ increased฀ since฀ the฀ late฀1980s.฀A฀major฀part฀of฀this฀increasing฀labour฀mobility฀comes฀from฀the฀ flow฀of฀rural฀migrant฀workers,฀who฀come฀to฀work฀in฀urban฀areas฀without฀ becoming฀permanent฀urban฀residents฀due฀to฀various฀institutional฀restrictions.฀ When฀official฀census฀started฀to฀collect฀data฀about฀migrant฀workers฀in฀1987,฀ there฀ were฀ only฀ 15.2฀ million฀ of฀ migrants฀ who฀ were฀ away฀ from฀ place฀ of฀ household฀registration฀for฀more฀than฀six฀months.฀That฀accounted฀to฀only฀ about฀ 1.5฀ per฀ cent฀ of฀ the฀ total฀ population.฀The฀ number฀ of฀ such฀ defined฀ “floating฀population”฀increased฀to฀30฀million฀by฀1990,฀56฀million฀by฀1995,฀ 80฀ million฀ by฀ 2000,฀ and฀ 140฀ million฀ by฀ 2004฀ (Mason฀ and฀Wang฀ 2005,฀ National฀Population฀and฀Family฀Planning฀Commission฀2005),฀more฀than฀ one-tenth฀of฀the฀total฀population. The฀rapid฀increase฀of฀labour฀migration฀has฀occurred฀not฀only฀between฀ rural฀and฀urban฀areas฀but฀also฀across฀different฀provincial฀economies.฀China’s฀ Population฀Census฀of฀1990฀(Population฀Census฀Office,฀1993)฀shows,฀between฀ July฀1985฀and฀July฀1990,฀the฀accumulated฀cross-province฀migration฀was฀only฀ about฀ 11.06฀ million.฀Ten฀ years฀ later,฀ the฀ 2000฀ Population฀ Census฀ reveals฀ 14฀RegEDC.indd฀฀฀296 7/29/09฀฀฀9:51:55฀AM Regions฀with฀Net฀Outward฀Migration฀ 297 that฀number฀of฀people฀not฀living฀in฀the฀provinces฀of฀their฀own฀household฀ registration฀ reached฀ 42.42฀ million฀ (Population฀ Census฀ Office,฀ 2002).฀ By฀ 2005,฀ the฀ size฀ of฀ such฀ cross-province฀ mobile฀ population฀ rose฀ to฀ 47.79฀ million฀(National฀Bureau฀of฀Statistics฀of฀China฀(NBSC),฀2006). The฀ provincial฀ economies’฀ net฀ migration฀ volume,฀ mt ,฀ is฀ estimated฀ in฀ the฀following฀way: mt = ∆Nt – gnt Nt-1 (1) where฀ ∆Nt ฀ =฀ Nt฀ –฀ Nt-1 ,฀ which฀ is฀ the฀ change฀ of฀ total฀ population฀ of฀ residents฀in฀year฀t,฀and฀gnt ฀is฀the฀annual฀natural฀growth฀rate฀of฀the฀resident฀ population.1 ฀ The฀ net฀ migration฀ ratio฀ in฀ the฀ period฀ from฀ year฀ 0฀ to฀ t฀ is฀ defined฀as ฀t 0 Zt ฀= mi ฀ N0฀ +฀ Nt 2 ฀ (2) China฀conducted฀nationwide฀population฀censuses฀in฀years฀1982,฀1990,฀ and฀ 2000฀ on฀ population฀ of...